Varesina vs Arconatese analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
34.5%
Win probability
1.36
Expected goals
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.3%
4-0
0.8%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.2%
3-0
2.4%
4-1
1.2%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
3.9%
2-0
5.3%
3-1
3.6%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
10%
1-0
7.8%
2-1
8%
3-2
2.7%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
19%
25%
Draw
0-0
5.8%
1-1
11.7%
2-2
5.9%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
25%
40.6%
Win probability
1.49
Expected goals
0-1
8.6%
1-2
8.7%
2-3
3%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
20.9%
0-2
6.4%
1-3
4.4%
2-4
1.1%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
12.1%
0-3
3.2%
1-4
1.6%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
5.2%
0-4
1.2%
1-5
0.5%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.8%
0-5
0.4%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.5%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Varesina
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Nov. 2023 |
CRE
0 - 1
VAR
27%
26%
47%
|
43 | 35 | 8 | 0 |
| 05 Nov. 2023 |
VAR
3 - 2
DES
44%
25%
31%
|
42 | 43 | 1 | +1 |
| 01 Nov. 2023 |
PAL
1 - 1
VAR
19%
20%
61%
|
42 | 24 | 18 | 0 |
| 29 Oct. 2023 |
VAR
1 - 1
CAR
73%
16%
11%
|
42 | 30 | 12 | 0 |
| 22 Oct. 2023 |
ARC
3 - 2
VAR
54%
24%
22%
|
42 | 45 | 3 | 0 |
Matches
Arconatese
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Nov. 2023 |
ARC
3 - 2
CAS
50%
25%
25%
|
46 | 46 | 0 | 0 |
| 05 Nov. 2023 |
CAL
1 - 2
ARC
19%
26%
56%
|
46 | 36 | 10 | 0 |
| 01 Nov. 2023 |
ARC
2 - 1
VIL
67%
20%
13%
|
45 | 37 | 8 | +1 |
| 29 Oct. 2023 |
CAS
1 - 0
ARC
20%
24%
56%
|
46 | 32 | 14 | -1 |
| 22 Oct. 2023 |
ARC
3 - 2
VAR
54%
24%
22%
|
45 | 42 | 3 | +1 |