Toluca vs Grêmio analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
54%
Win probability
1.63
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.8%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1%
4-0
2.3%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3.1%
3-0
5.6%
4-1
2.1%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
8.1%
2-0
10.3%
3-1
5.2%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
16.6%
1-0
12.6%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
2.4%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.9%
24.7%
Draw
0-0
7.7%
1-1
11.7%
2-2
4.4%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.7%
21.3%
Win probability
0.93
Expected goals
0-1
7.2%
1-2
5.4%
2-3
1.4%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
14.1%
0-2
3.3%
1-3
1.7%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
5.3%
0-3
1%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.5%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-3%
-7%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Toluca
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Feb. 2016 |
TOL
1 - 1
ATS
71%
19%
11%
|
83 | 72 | 11 | 0 |
| 07 Feb. 2016 |
CHI
1 - 1
TOL
30%
27%
42%
|
83 | 77 | 6 | 0 |
| 31 Jan. 2016 |
TOL
1 - 1
PUE
63%
22%
15%
|
83 | 78 | 5 | 0 |
| 24 Jan. 2016 |
MOR
1 - 1
TOL
34%
27%
40%
|
83 | 75 | 8 | 0 |
| 17 Jan. 2016 |
PUM
3 - 2
TOL
36%
27%
37%
|
83 | 78 | 5 | 0 |
Matches
Grêmio
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Feb. 2016 |
GRE
0 - 2
ECS
76%
17%
7%
|
84 | 56 | 28 | 0 |
| 11 Feb. 2016 |
VER
0 - 1
GRE
15%
25%
60%
|
84 | 52 | 32 | 0 |
| 07 Feb. 2016 |
GRE
1 - 0
COT
61%
23%
16%
|
84 | 76 | 8 | 0 |
| 04 Feb. 2016 |
GRE
3 - 1
AIM
81%
15%
5%
|
84 | 45 | 39 | 0 |
| 31 Jan. 2016 |
BRA
1 - 3
GRE
16%
27%
58%
|
83 | 56 | 27 | +1 |