Uruguay vs Mexico analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
35%
Win probability
1.43
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.4%
4-0
0.9%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.3%
3-0
2.4%
4-1
1.4%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
4.1%
2-0
5.1%
3-1
3.8%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
10.2%
1-0
7.2%
2-1
8%
3-2
3%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
18.8%
24.3%
Draw
0-0
5.1%
1-1
11.2%
2-2
6.2%
3-3
1.5%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.3%
40.7%
Win probability
1.56
Expected goals
0-1
7.9%
1-2
8.8%
2-3
3.2%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
20.5%
0-2
6.1%
1-3
4.5%
2-4
1.3%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
12.1%
0-3
3.2%
1-4
1.8%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0%
-3
5.4%
0-4
1.2%
1-5
0.6%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
1.9%
0-5
0.4%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.6%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+4%
-8%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Uruguay
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Jul. 2011 |
URU
1 - 1
CHI
47%
25%
29%
|
92 | 92 | 0 | 0 |
| 05 Jul. 2011 |
URU
1 - 1
PER
73%
17%
10%
|
92 | 86 | 6 | 0 |
| 24 Jun. 2011 |
URU
3 - 0
EST
78%
15%
7%
|
92 | 71 | 21 | 0 |
| 23 Jun. 2011 |
URU
3 - 0
EST
78%
15%
7%
|
92 | 71 | 21 | 0 |
| 08 Jun. 2011 |
URU
1 - 1
NED
23%
25%
52%
|
92 | 99 | 7 | 0 |
Matches
Mexico
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Jul. 2011 |
PER
1 - 0
MEX
12%
19%
69%
|
94 | 86 | 8 | 0 |
| 05 Jul. 2011 |
CHI
2 - 1
MEX
32%
24%
44%
|
94 | 92 | 2 | 0 |
| 26 Jun. 2011 |
USA
2 - 4
MEX
31%
24%
45%
|
94 | 91 | 3 | 0 |
| 23 Jun. 2011 |
HND
0 - 2
MEX
14%
20%
66%
|
94 | 86 | 8 | 0 |
| 19 Jun. 2011 |
MEX
2 - 1
GTM
88%
9%
3%
|
94 | 76 | 18 | 0 |