Poland vs Germany analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
17.6%
Win probability
1.03
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.2%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.3%
3-0
0.8%
4-1
0.4%
5-2
0.1%
6-3
<0%
+3
1.3%
2-0
2.3%
3-1
1.7%
4-2
0.5%
5-3
0.1%
+2
4.5%
1-0
4.5%
2-1
4.9%
3-2
1.8%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
11.4%
20.3%
Draw
0-0
4.3%
1-1
9.4%
2-2
5.1%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
20.3%
62.1%
Win probability
2.11
Expected goals
0-1
9.1%
1-2
9.9%
2-3
3.6%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
23.4%
0-2
9.6%
1-3
7%
2-4
1.9%
3-5
0.3%
4-6
0%
-2
18.8%
0-3
6.8%
1-4
3.7%
2-5
0.8%
3-6
0.1%
-3
11.3%
0-4
3.6%
1-5
1.5%
2-6
0.3%
3-7
0%
-4
5.4%
0-5
1.5%
1-6
0.5%
2-7
0.1%
-5
2.1%
0-6
0.5%
1-7
0.2%
2-8
0%
-6
0.7%
0-7
0.2%
1-8
0%
-7
0.2%
0-8
0%
1-9
0%
-8
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Poland
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Mar. 2023 |
POL
1 - 0
ALB
78%
15%
7%
|
87 | 73 | 14 | 0 |
| 24 Mar. 2023 |
CZE
3 - 1
POL
39%
24%
37%
|
87 | 86 | 1 | 0 |
| 04 Dec. 2022 |
FRA
3 - 1
POL
71%
17%
12%
|
88 | 94 | 6 | -1 |
| 30 Nov. 2022 |
POL
0 - 2
ARG
17%
22%
62%
|
88 | 95 | 7 | 0 |
| 26 Nov. 2022 |
POL
2 - 0
SAU
67%
19%
14%
|
88 | 82 | 6 | 0 |
Matches
Germany
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Jun. 2023 |
DEU
3 - 3
UKR
80%
13%
7%
|
93 | 87 | 6 | 0 |
| 28 Mar. 2023 |
DEU
2 - 3
BEL
52%
21%
27%
|
93 | 93 | 0 | 0 |
| 25 Mar. 2023 |
DEU
2 - 0
PER
79%
13%
8%
|
93 | 88 | 5 | 0 |
| 01 Dec. 2022 |
CRI
2 - 4
DEU
9%
15%
76%
|
93 | 84 | 9 | 0 |
| 27 Nov. 2022 |
ESP
1 - 1
DEU
56%
21%
24%
|
93 | 95 | 2 | 0 |