Cup Paulista Semi-finals
Global 3-2
São Caetano vs EC São Bernardo analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
56.2%
Win probability
1.67
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.8%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.1%
4-0
2.5%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3.4%
3-0
6.1%
4-1
2.2%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
8.7%
2-0
11%
3-1
5.3%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
17.4%
1-0
13.2%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
2.3%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.4%
24.3%
Draw
0-0
7.9%
1-1
11.5%
2-2
4.2%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.3%
19.5%
Win probability
0.87
Expected goals
0-1
6.9%
1-2
5%
2-3
1.2%
3-4
0.1%
4-5
0%
-1
13.2%
0-2
3%
1-3
1.4%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
4.7%
0-3
0.9%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0%
-3
1.2%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+37%
+9%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
São Caetano
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Oct. 2019 |
BER
2 - 2
SAO
27%
26%
47%
|
59 | 51 | 8 | 0 |
| 19 Oct. 2019 |
SAO
0 - 2
MIR
42%
27%
31%
|
60 | 58 | 2 | -1 |
| 16 Oct. 2019 |
SAN
1 - 2
SAO
25%
27%
48%
|
59 | 52 | 7 | +1 |
| 12 Oct. 2019 |
FER
1 - 2
SAO
47%
27%
26%
|
59 | 61 | 2 | 0 |
| 05 Oct. 2019 |
SAO
1 - 0
FER
35%
27%
38%
|
58 | 62 | 4 | +1 |
Matches
EC São Bernardo
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Oct. 2019 |
BER
2 - 2
SAO
27%
26%
47%
|
51 | 59 | 8 | 0 |
| 19 Oct. 2019 |
XVD
3 - 2
BER
58%
23%
19%
|
52 | 58 | 6 | -1 |
| 16 Oct. 2019 |
BER
2 - 0
COM
38%
27%
35%
|
50 | 54 | 4 | +2 |
| 13 Oct. 2019 |
LIN
2 - 3
BER
35%
27%
38%
|
50 | 46 | 4 | 0 |
| 06 Oct. 2019 |
BER
5 - 2
LIN
45%
26%
29%
|
49 | 48 | 1 | +1 |