Champions League Semi-finals
Global 1-5
Real Madrid vs Manchester City analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
20.9%
Win probability
1.04
Expected goals
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.3%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.4%
3-0
1%
4-1
0.5%
5-2
0.1%
6-3
<0%
+3
1.6%
2-0
3%
3-1
1.9%
4-2
0.5%
5-3
0.1%
+2
5.4%
1-0
5.7%
2-1
5.5%
3-2
1.8%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
13.4%
22.5%
Draw
0-0
5.5%
1-1
10.6%
2-2
5.2%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
22.5%
56.6%
Win probability
1.86
Expected goals
0-1
10.2%
1-2
9.9%
2-3
3.2%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
23.9%
0-2
9.5%
1-3
6.1%
2-4
1.5%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
17.4%
0-3
5.9%
1-4
2.9%
2-5
0.6%
3-6
0.1%
-3
9.4%
0-4
2.7%
1-5
1.1%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
4%
0-5
1%
1-6
0.3%
2-7
0%
-5
1.4%
0-6
0.3%
1-7
0.1%
2-8
0%
-6
0.4%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+2%
+1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Real Madrid
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 May. 2023 |
RMA
2 - 1
OSA
85%
11%
4%
|
94 | 84 | 10 | 0 |
| 02 May. 2023 |
RSO
2 - 0
RMA
16%
22%
62%
|
95 | 88 | 7 | -1 |
| 29 Apr. 2023 |
RMA
4 - 2
ALM
82%
13%
5%
|
95 | 79 | 16 | 0 |
| 25 Apr. 2023 |
GIR
4 - 2
RMA
8%
18%
74%
|
95 | 81 | 14 | 0 |
| 22 Apr. 2023 |
RMA
2 - 0
CEL
79%
14%
7%
|
95 | 84 | 11 | 0 |
Matches
Manchester City
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 May. 2023 |
MAC
2 - 1
LEE
89%
8%
3%
|
99 | 83 | 16 | 0 |
| 03 May. 2023 |
MAC
3 - 0
WHU
84%
11%
5%
|
99 | 89 | 10 | 0 |
| 30 Apr. 2023 |
FUL
1 - 2
MAC
9%
18%
74%
|
98 | 85 | 13 | +1 |
| 26 Apr. 2023 |
MAC
4 - 1
ARS
73%
16%
11%
|
98 | 93 | 5 | 0 |
| 22 Apr. 2023 |
MAC
3 - 0
SHE
93%
6%
2%
|
98 | 83 | 15 | 0 |