Europa League Final
Global 5-3
Real Madrid vs Köln analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
78.2%
Win probability
3.09
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.2%
8-0
0.3%
9-1
0.1%
10-2
<0%
+8
0.5%
7-0
0.9%
8-1
0.3%
9-2
0.1%
+7
1.3%
6-0
2%
7-1
0.9%
8-2
0.2%
9-3
<0%
+6
3.1%
5-0
3.8%
6-1
2%
7-2
0.5%
8-3
0.1%
+5
6.4%
4-0
6.2%
5-1
3.9%
6-2
1%
7-3
0.2%
8-4
<0%
+4
11.3%
3-0
8.1%
4-1
6.3%
5-2
2%
6-3
0.3%
7-4
<0%
+3
16.8%
2-0
7.8%
3-1
8.2%
4-2
3.2%
5-3
0.7%
6-4
0.1%
+2
20.1%
1-0
5.1%
2-1
8%
3-2
4.2%
4-3
1.1%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
18.6%
12.7%
Draw
0-0
1.6%
1-1
5.2%
2-2
4.1%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
12.7%
9.1%
Win probability
1.02
Expected goals
0-1
1.7%
1-2
2.6%
2-3
1.4%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0.1%
-1
6.1%
0-2
0.9%
1-3
0.9%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
-2
2.2%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
0.6%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
2-6
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Real Madrid
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Apr. 1986 |
RSO
5 - 3
RMA
35%
26%
39%
|
88 | 83 | 5 | 0 |
| 16 Apr. 1986 |
RMA
5 - 1
INT
72%
18%
11%
|
88 | 85 | 3 | 0 |
| 12 Apr. 1986 |
RMA
2 - 1
SPO
80%
14%
6%
|
88 | 83 | 5 | 0 |
| 09 Apr. 1986 |
RMA
3 - 2
ZAR
69%
19%
12%
|
88 | 85 | 3 | 0 |
| 06 Apr. 1986 |
CEL
1 - 5
RMA
19%
25%
56%
|
88 | 64 | 24 | 0 |
Matches
Köln
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Apr. 1986 |
KOL
3 - 0
RTV
65%
20%
15%
|
80 | 76 | 4 | 0 |
| 22 Apr. 1986 |
WAL
1 - 1
KOL
43%
25%
33%
|
80 | 78 | 2 | 0 |
| 19 Apr. 1986 |
KOL
1 - 3
F95
66%
19%
16%
|
81 | 73 | 8 | -1 |
| 16 Apr. 1986 |
KSV
3 - 3
KOL
47%
23%
30%
|
81 | 79 | 2 | 0 |
| 12 Apr. 1986 |
FCN
3 - 0
KOL
39%
25%
37%
|
81 | 74 | 7 | 0 |