Progress / AFA Olaine vs Rigas FS II analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
28.1%
Win probability
1.34
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
7-1
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.2%
4-0
0.6%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
0.1%
+4
0.9%
3-0
1.7%
4-1
1%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
3%
2-0
3.7%
3-1
3.1%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
7.9%
1-0
5.6%
2-1
6.9%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
15.9%
22.7%
Draw
0-0
4.1%
1-1
10.2%
2-2
6.3%
3-3
1.7%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
22.7%
49.2%
Win probability
1.84
Expected goals
0-1
7.6%
1-2
9.4%
2-3
3.9%
3-4
0.8%
4-5
0.1%
-1
21.8%
0-2
7%
1-3
5.8%
2-4
1.8%
3-5
0.3%
4-6
0%
-2
14.9%
0-3
4.3%
1-4
2.7%
2-5
0.7%
3-6
0.1%
-3
7.7%
0-4
2%
1-5
1%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
3.2%
0-5
0.7%
1-6
0.3%
2-7
0.1%
-5
1.1%
0-6
0.2%
1-7
0.1%
2-8
0%
-6
0.3%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-15%
+37%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
11º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
16
9º
14º
9º
50
1º
6º
2º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
1º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
2º
|
50 | 63 |
1º
|
53.5% | |
|
|
1º
|
50 | 61 |
2º
|
43.5% | |
|
3º
|
46 | 57 |
3º
|
73% | |
|
4º
|
34 | 47 |
4º
|
84% | |
|
5º
|
32 | 42 |
5º
|
52% | |
|
6º
|
31 | 39 |
6º
|
49% | |
|
7º
|
26 | 36 |
7º
|
65.5% | |
|
8º
|
26 | 30 |
8º
|
51.5% | |
|
|
11º
|
16 | 27 |
9º
|
29.5% | |
|
9º
|
22 | 27 |
10º
|
26% | |
|
10º
|
19 | 23 |
11º
|
18.5% | |
|
12º
|
16 | 23 |
12º
|
21% | |
|
13º
|
12 | 19 |
13º
|
33.5% | |
|
14º
|
11 | 18 |
14º
|
49.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0% | 38% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
0% | 43.5% |
|
Mid-table
|
88.5% | 18.5% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
10% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
1.5% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Progress / AFA Olaine
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Apr. 2024 |
FSL
2 - 1
PRA
7%
12%
81%
|
42 | 7 | 35 | 0 |
| 12 Nov. 2023 |
ALB
6 - 2
PRA
68%
19%
14%
|
42 | 59 | 17 | 0 |
| 04 Nov. 2023 |
PRA
3 - 3
RIG
28%
23%
49%
|
42 | 50 | 8 | 0 |
| 28 Oct. 2023 |
VAL
1 - 1
PRA
67%
18%
14%
|
41 | 54 | 13 | +1 |
| 21 Oct. 2023 |
PRA
1 - 1
GRO
15%
18%
66%
|
41 | 62 | 21 | 0 |
Matches
Rigas FS II
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Apr. 2024 |
VAL
1 - 1
RIG
48%
23%
28%
|
51 | 53 | 2 | 0 |
| 12 Nov. 2023 |
RIG
5 - 4
SMI
74%
15%
11%
|
50 | 33 | 17 | +1 |
| 04 Nov. 2023 |
PRA
3 - 3
RIG
28%
23%
49%
|
50 | 42 | 8 | 0 |
| 27 Oct. 2023 |
RIG
1 - 3
SKA
44%
24%
32%
|
51 | 54 | 3 | -1 |
| 22 Oct. 2023 |
ALB
2 - 2
RIG
55%
22%
23%
|
51 | 58 | 7 | 0 |