Nacional vs Penafiel analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
55.9%
Win probability
1.89
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.4%
5-0
1%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.4%
4-0
2.7%
5-1
1.1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4%
3-0
5.7%
4-1
2.9%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
9.3%
2-0
9%
3-1
6.2%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
17.1%
1-0
9.6%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.4%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.5%
22.4%
Draw
0-0
5.1%
1-1
10.5%
2-2
5.4%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
22.4%
21.8%
Win probability
1.09
Expected goals
0-1
5.6%
1-2
5.7%
2-3
2%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
13.6%
0-2
3%
1-3
2.1%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
5.7%
0-3
1.1%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.8%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+19%
-3%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 May. 2023 |
NAC
3 - 2
ACV
41%
27%
32%
|
61 | 61 | 0 | 0 |
| 21 May. 2023 |
ESA
0 - 1
NAC
49%
25%
27%
|
60 | 63 | 3 | +1 |
| 14 May. 2023 |
NAC
0 - 1
FAR
34%
27%
40%
|
61 | 66 | 5 | -1 |
| 07 May. 2023 |
BEN
1 - 2
NAC
48%
24%
28%
|
60 | 61 | 1 | +1 |
| 30 Apr. 2023 |
POR
1 - 1
NAC
44%
25%
31%
|
61 | 61 | 0 | -1 |
Matches
Penafiel
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Jul. 2023 |
PEN
1 - 2
CHA
23%
24%
53%
|
57 | 70 | 13 | 0 |
| 15 Jul. 2023 |
PAÇ
1 - 1
PEN
56%
23%
22%
|
57 | 62 | 5 | 0 |
| 27 May. 2023 |
PEN
2 - 4
ESA
30%
27%
43%
|
57 | 63 | 6 | 0 |
| 21 May. 2023 |
TOR
5 - 1
PEN
30%
29%
42%
|
59 | 55 | 4 | -2 |
| 14 May. 2023 |
PEN
1 - 0
TON
35%
28%
37%
|
58 | 62 | 4 | +1 |