Nacional vs Libertad analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
53.3%
Win probability
1.77
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.8%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.1%
4-0
2.3%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.4%
3-0
5.3%
4-1
2.5%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
8.4%
2-0
9%
3-1
5.8%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
16.3%
1-0
10.1%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
3.1%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.6%
23.4%
Draw
0-0
5.7%
1-1
11.1%
2-2
5.3%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
23.4%
23.3%
Win probability
1.09
Expected goals
0-1
6.2%
1-2
6%
2-3
1.9%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
14.6%
0-2
3.4%
1-3
2.2%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
6.2%
0-3
1.2%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+11%
+18%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Mar. 2024 |
PEÑ
0 - 0
NAC
42%
27%
31%
|
81 | 81 | 0 | 0 |
| 23 Mar. 2024 |
NAC
0 - 0
PRO
48%
25%
27%
|
81 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
| 15 Mar. 2024 |
NAC
2 - 1
REA
66%
19%
14%
|
81 | 72 | 9 | 0 |
| 10 Mar. 2024 |
DEF
3 - 3
NAC
49%
25%
26%
|
81 | 81 | 0 | 0 |
| 08 Mar. 2024 |
REA
1 - 0
NAC
35%
25%
40%
|
82 | 70 | 12 | -1 |
Matches
Libertad
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Mar. 2024 |
LIB
0 - 0
OLI
47%
26%
28%
|
78 | 78 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 Mar. 2024 |
JLM
0 - 2
LIB
40%
27%
33%
|
78 | 78 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 Mar. 2024 |
LIB
4 - 1
AME
44%
26%
31%
|
78 | 78 | 0 | 0 |
| 26 Feb. 2024 |
LIB
1 - 1
TAC
54%
24%
22%
|
78 | 75 | 3 | 0 |
| 18 Feb. 2024 |
AME
1 - 2
LIB
42%
26%
32%
|
78 | 78 | 0 | 0 |