Copa Libertadores Eliminatorias Last 16
Global 2-2
Nacional vs Boca Juniors analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
44.1%
Win probability
1.41
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.5%
4-0
1.3%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.8%
3-0
3.8%
4-1
1.5%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.5%
2-0
8.1%
3-1
4.2%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.1%
+2
13.1%
1-0
11.4%
2-1
8.9%
3-2
2.3%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.9%
26.5%
Draw
0-0
8.1%
1-1
12.6%
2-2
4.9%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.5%
29.4%
Win probability
1.1
Expected goals
0-1
8.9%
1-2
6.9%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
17.9%
0-2
4.9%
1-3
2.6%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
8%
0-3
1.8%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.1%
-3
2.6%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.7%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+14%
+7%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Jul. 2023 |
NAC
1 - 0
CEL
68%
20%
12%
|
81 | 73 | 8 | 0 |
| 16 Jul. 2023 |
NAC
0 - 1
FEN
72%
18%
10%
|
81 | 69 | 12 | 0 |
| 09 Jul. 2023 |
RAC
2 - 2
NAC
30%
28%
42%
|
81 | 74 | 7 | 0 |
| 06 Jul. 2023 |
NAC
4 - 1
PLA
72%
18%
10%
|
81 | 69 | 12 | 0 |
| 29 Jun. 2023 |
NAC
1 - 0
MET
76%
16%
9%
|
81 | 66 | 15 | 0 |
Matches
Boca Juniors
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Jul. 2023 |
IND
0 - 2
BOC
40%
29%
32%
|
84 | 82 | 2 | 0 |
| 25 Jul. 2023 |
BOC
2 - 1
NOB
47%
28%
26%
|
84 | 82 | 2 | 0 |
| 21 Jul. 2023 |
BAR
1 - 2
BOC
31%
27%
42%
|
85 | 77 | 8 | -1 |
| 16 Jul. 2023 |
GLP
1 - 3
BOC
34%
30%
36%
|
84 | 79 | 5 | +1 |
| 11 Jul. 2023 |
BOC
1 - 0
HUR
54%
26%
20%
|
84 | 78 | 6 | 0 |