Melbourne City vs Adelaide United analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
53.3%
Win probability
1.84
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.4%
5-0
0.9%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.2%
4-0
2.4%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.6%
3-0
5.2%
4-1
2.7%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
8.6%
2-0
8.5%
3-1
6%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
16.3%
1-0
9.2%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
3.5%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.1%
22.8%
Draw
0-0
5%
1-1
10.7%
2-2
5.6%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
22.8%
23.8%
Win probability
1.15
Expected goals
0-1
5.8%
1-2
6.1%
2-3
2.2%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
14.5%
0-2
3.3%
1-3
2.4%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
6.4%
0-3
1.3%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2.1%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
6º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
18
3º
12º
5º
18
1º
8º
6º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
5º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
24 | 48 |
1º
|
31% | |
|
4º
|
18 | 46 |
2º
|
19% | |
|
2º
|
24 | 46 |
3º
|
18% | |
|
3º
|
21 | 45 |
4º
|
13% | |
|
|
6º
|
18 | 43 |
5º
|
14.5% | |
|
|
5º
|
18 | 39 |
6º
|
17% | |
|
9º
|
15 | 37 |
7º
|
14.5% | |
|
7º
|
18 | 36 |
8º
|
20% | |
|
8º
|
17 | 36 |
9º
|
18.5% | |
|
10º
|
13 | 29 |
10º
|
32% | |
|
11º
|
8 | 23 |
11º
|
33.5% | |
|
12º
|
7 | 22 |
12º
|
46.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
AFC Champions League Elite
|
12% | 3.5% |
|
Next round
|
67% | 58.5% |
|
Mid-table
|
21% | 38% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Melbourne City
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Jan. 2024 |
CCM
2 - 1
MCI
49%
23%
29%
|
74 | 73 | 1 | 0 |
| 12 Jan. 2024 |
MCI
0 - 1
WES
55%
23%
23%
|
74 | 69 | 5 | 0 |
| 07 Jan. 2024 |
WUF
1 - 2
MCI
21%
24%
55%
|
74 | 62 | 12 | 0 |
| 28 Dec. 2023 |
MCI
8 - 1
BRI
58%
22%
19%
|
74 | 67 | 7 | 0 |
| 23 Dec. 2023 |
MCI
0 - 0
MEL
53%
23%
23%
|
74 | 71 | 3 | 0 |
Matches
Adelaide United
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Jan. 2024 |
ADE
4 - 3
SYD
43%
26%
31%
|
68 | 70 | 2 | 0 |
| 08 Jan. 2024 |
ADE
1 - 1
MFC
52%
24%
25%
|
68 | 65 | 3 | 0 |
| 04 Jan. 2024 |
ADE
2 - 2
WPH
47%
25%
28%
|
68 | 68 | 0 | 0 |
| 30 Dec. 2023 |
MEL
2 - 0
ADE
44%
24%
31%
|
69 | 70 | 1 | -1 |
| 22 Dec. 2023 |
ADE
3 - 1
NEW
59%
23%
19%
|
69 | 62 | 7 | 0 |