Champions League Semi-finals
Global 3-5
Manchester United vs Milan analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
59.8%
Win probability
1.83
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.4%
5-0
1.1%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.5%
4-0
3.1%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.2%
3-0
6.8%
4-1
2.7%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
10%
2-0
11.2%
3-1
6%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
+2
18.5%
1-0
12.3%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
2.6%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25%
22.6%
Draw
0-0
6.7%
1-1
10.7%
2-2
4.3%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
22.6%
17.6%
Win probability
0.87
Expected goals
0-1
5.9%
1-2
4.7%
2-3
1.2%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
12%
0-2
2.6%
1-3
1.4%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
4.2%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0%
-3
1.1%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-2%
-7%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Manchester United
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Apr. 2007 |
MUD
1 - 1
MID
78%
15%
6%
|
95 | 84 | 11 | 0 |
| 17 Apr. 2007 |
MUD
2 - 0
SHE
82%
13%
5%
|
95 | 76 | 19 | 0 |
| 14 Apr. 2007 |
WAT
1 - 4
MUD
11%
21%
68%
|
95 | 77 | 18 | 0 |
| 10 Apr. 2007 |
MUD
7 - 1
ROM
64%
21%
15%
|
95 | 90 | 5 | 0 |
| 07 Apr. 2007 |
OPA
2 - 1
MUD
15%
23%
62%
|
95 | 82 | 13 | 0 |
Matches
Milan
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Apr. 2007 |
ACM
3 - 1
CAG
76%
16%
8%
|
93 | 78 | 15 | 0 |
| 18 Apr. 2007 |
ASC
2 - 5
ACM
15%
25%
61%
|
93 | 70 | 23 | 0 |
| 15 Apr. 2007 |
MES
1 - 3
ACM
16%
25%
59%
|
92 | 73 | 19 | +1 |
| 11 Apr. 2007 |
BYM
0 - 2
ACM
41%
27%
31%
|
92 | 90 | 2 | 0 |
| 07 Apr. 2007 |
ACM
3 - 1
EMP
74%
17%
9%
|
92 | 81 | 11 | 0 |