Liverpool vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
90.5%
Win probability
2.91
Expected goals
10-0
0.1%
+10
0.1%
9-0
0.2%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.2%
8-0
0.5%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.6%
7-0
1.5%
8-1
0.1%
+7
1.6%
6-0
3.6%
7-1
0.4%
8-2
<0%
+6
4%
5-0
7.4%
6-1
0.9%
7-2
<0%
+5
8.3%
4-0
12.8%
5-1
1.8%
6-2
0.1%
+4
14.7%
3-0
17.6%
4-1
3.1%
5-2
0.2%
+3
20.9%
2-0
18.2%
3-1
4.2%
4-2
0.4%
5-3
<0%
+2
22.8%
1-0
12.5%
2-1
4.4%
3-2
0.5%
4-3
<0%
+1
17.4%
7.9%
Draw
0-0
4.3%
1-1
3%
2-2
0.5%
3-3
<0%
0
7.9%
1.6%
Win probability
0.24
Expected goals
0-1
1%
1-2
0.4%
2-3
0%
-1
1.4%
0-2
0.1%
1-3
0%
-2
0.2%
0-3
0%
-3
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Liverpool
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Nov. 2022 |
TOT
1 - 2
LIV
20%
21%
59%
|
96 | 90 | 6 | 0 |
| 01 Nov. 2022 |
LIV
2 - 0
NAP
63%
20%
17%
|
95 | 91 | 4 | +1 |
| 29 Oct. 2022 |
LIV
1 - 2
LEE
81%
13%
6%
|
96 | 82 | 14 | -1 |
| 26 Oct. 2022 |
AJA
0 - 3
LIV
16%
19%
65%
|
95 | 88 | 7 | +1 |
| 22 Oct. 2022 |
NTT
1 - 0
LIV
5%
12%
83%
|
95 | 78 | 17 | 0 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Nov. 2022 |
GUL
2 - 2
DER
15%
21%
64%
|
66 | 45 | 21 | 0 |
| 01 Nov. 2022 |
MOR
1 - 1
DER
22%
28%
50%
|
66 | 52 | 14 | 0 |
| 29 Oct. 2022 |
DER
4 - 2
BRO
44%
26%
29%
|
65 | 62 | 3 | +1 |
| 25 Oct. 2022 |
DER
0 - 0
EXE
48%
26%
27%
|
65 | 61 | 4 | 0 |
| 21 Oct. 2022 |
IPS
1 - 0
DER
48%
28%
24%
|
65 | 68 | 3 | 0 |