Conference League qualifiers Playoffs Final
Global 2-1
Fiorentina vs Twente analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
62.9%
Win probability
2.25
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.9%
5-0
1.7%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.5%
4-0
3.7%
5-1
1.9%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
<0%
+4
6%
3-0
6.5%
4-1
4.1%
5-2
1%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
11.8%
2-0
8.7%
3-1
7.3%
4-2
2.3%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
18.8%
1-0
7.7%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
4.1%
4-3
0.9%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.6%
19.4%
Draw
0-0
3.4%
1-1
8.7%
2-2
5.5%
3-3
1.5%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
19.4%
17.8%
Win probability
1.12
Expected goals
0-1
3.9%
1-2
4.8%
2-3
2%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0.1%
-1
11.2%
0-2
2.2%
1-3
1.8%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
4.6%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.5%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Fiorentina
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Aug. 2022 |
FIO
3 - 2
USC
75%
16%
9%
|
84 | 74 | 10 | 0 |
| 06 Aug. 2022 |
BET
3 - 1
FIO
63%
21%
16%
|
84 | 88 | 4 | 0 |
| 31 Jul. 2022 |
FIO
1 - 2
GAL
65%
19%
16%
|
84 | 79 | 5 | 0 |
| 23 Jul. 2022 |
FIO
4 - 0
TRI
89%
9%
3%
|
84 | 50 | 34 | 0 |
| 22 Jul. 2022 |
FIO
4 - 1
TRE
92%
7%
2%
|
84 | 47 | 37 | 0 |
Matches
Twente
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Aug. 2022 |
TWE
3 - 0
FOR
63%
22%
15%
|
79 | 66 | 13 | 0 |
| 11 Aug. 2022 |
TWE
4 - 1
ČUK
40%
26%
34%
|
79 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
| 07 Aug. 2022 |
NEC
0 - 1
TWE
20%
24%
56%
|
79 | 66 | 13 | 0 |
| 04 Aug. 2022 |
ČUK
1 - 3
TWE
45%
24%
31%
|
78 | 80 | 2 | +1 |
| 29 Jul. 2022 |
TWE
4 - 1
BOL
47%
26%
27%
|
78 | 77 | 1 | 0 |