Conference League Semi-finals
Global 4-3
Fiorentina vs Basel analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
63.8%
Win probability
2.23
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.9%
5-0
1.7%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.5%
4-0
3.8%
5-1
1.8%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
<0%
+4
6.1%
3-0
6.9%
4-1
4.1%
5-2
1%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
12.1%
2-0
9.3%
3-1
7.3%
4-2
2.2%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.1%
1-0
8.3%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
3.9%
4-3
0.8%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.9%
19.3%
Draw
0-0
3.7%
1-1
8.8%
2-2
5.2%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
19.3%
16.8%
Win probability
1.06
Expected goals
0-1
4%
1-2
4.7%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
10.8%
0-2
2.1%
1-3
1.6%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
4.3%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.3%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-1%
+2%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Fiorentina
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 May. 2023 |
NAP
1 - 0
FIO
72%
17%
11%
|
88 | 94 | 6 | 0 |
| 03 May. 2023 |
SAL
3 - 3
FIO
24%
25%
52%
|
88 | 76 | 12 | 0 |
| 30 Apr. 2023 |
FIO
5 - 0
SAM
75%
16%
9%
|
87 | 74 | 13 | +1 |
| 27 Apr. 2023 |
FIO
0 - 0
USC
79%
14%
7%
|
87 | 74 | 13 | 0 |
| 23 Apr. 2023 |
ASS
3 - 2
FIO
28%
26%
46%
|
87 | 80 | 7 | 0 |
Matches
Basel
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 May. 2023 |
BAS
0 - 2
ZUR
55%
22%
23%
|
83 | 77 | 6 | 0 |
| 30 Apr. 2023 |
WIN
1 - 4
BAS
17%
21%
62%
|
83 | 66 | 17 | 0 |
| 27 Apr. 2023 |
SIO
1 - 2
BAS
18%
22%
60%
|
82 | 69 | 13 | +1 |
| 23 Apr. 2023 |
BAS
0 - 2
FCL
59%
22%
19%
|
83 | 77 | 6 | -1 |
| 20 Apr. 2023 |
NIC
1 - 2
BAS
42%
25%
33%
|
82 | 83 | 1 | +1 |