Conmebol Sudamericana 1/32
Global 6-1
Bahía vs Nacional analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
57.1%
Win probability
1.72
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.9%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.2%
4-0
2.7%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3.6%
3-0
6.3%
4-1
2.4%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
9.1%
2-0
10.9%
3-1
5.6%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
17.6%
1-0
12.6%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.1%
23.7%
Draw
0-0
7.3%
1-1
11.2%
2-2
4.3%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
23.7%
19.2%
Win probability
0.89
Expected goals
0-1
6.5%
1-2
5%
2-3
1.3%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
13%
0-2
2.9%
1-3
1.5%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
4.7%
0-3
0.9%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.2%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Bahía
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Feb. 2020 |
JEC
1 - 3
BAH
4%
11%
85%
|
78 | 36 | 42 | 0 |
| 08 Feb. 2020 |
BAH
0 - 2
VIT
65%
21%
14%
|
78 | 65 | 13 | 0 |
| 06 Feb. 2020 |
RIV
1 - 0
BAH
8%
20%
71%
|
79 | 45 | 34 | -1 |
| 02 Feb. 2020 |
BAH
1 - 1
JAC
85%
12%
3%
|
79 | 45 | 34 | 0 |
| 30 Jan. 2020 |
BAH
0 - 1
BAH
10%
21%
69%
|
79 | 49 | 30 | 0 |
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Feb. 2020 |
SPO
1 - 1
NAC
37%
27%
36%
|
71 | 64 | 7 | 0 |
| 03 Feb. 2020 |
NAC
1 - 2
LIB
18%
24%
58%
|
71 | 83 | 12 | 0 |
| 24 Jan. 2020 |
GEN
0 - 2
NAC
35%
27%
38%
|
71 | 64 | 7 | 0 |
| 18 Jan. 2020 |
NAC
3 - 0
GUA
50%
27%
22%
|
70 | 70 | 0 | +1 |
| 15 Dec. 2019 |
GUA
0 - 5
NAC
68%
19%
13%
|
69 | 79 | 10 | +1 |