Derby County vs Nottingham Forest analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
70.1%
Win probability
2.09
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.7%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.9%
5-0
2.1%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
<0%
+5
2.6%
4-0
4.9%
5-1
1.4%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
6.5%
3-0
9.5%
4-1
3.4%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
13.4%
2-0
13.7%
3-1
6.5%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
+2
21.4%
1-0
13.1%
2-1
9.3%
3-2
2.2%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.9%
18.9%
Draw
0-0
6.3%
1-1
8.9%
2-2
3.2%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
<0%
0
18.9%
11%
Win probability
0.68
Expected goals
0-1
4.3%
1-2
3%
2-3
0.7%
3-4
0.1%
-1
8.1%
0-2
1.5%
1-3
0.7%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
2.3%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.5%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+10%
+2%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Jan. 2015 |
IPS
0 - 1
DER
40%
26%
34%
|
77 | 74 | 3 | 0 |
| 03 Jan. 2015 |
DER
1 - 0
SOU
85%
11%
4%
|
77 | 48 | 29 | 0 |
| 30 Dec. 2014 |
DER
2 - 0
LEE
73%
17%
10%
|
76 | 62 | 14 | +1 |
| 26 Dec. 2014 |
BIR
0 - 4
DER
34%
26%
40%
|
76 | 65 | 11 | 0 |
| 20 Dec. 2014 |
DER
2 - 2
NOR
50%
25%
26%
|
76 | 76 | 0 | 0 |
Matches
Nottingham Forest
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Jan. 2015 |
NTT
0 - 2
SHW
53%
24%
23%
|
66 | 66 | 0 | 0 |
| 03 Jan. 2015 |
ROC
1 - 0
NTT
33%
26%
41%
|
67 | 59 | 8 | -1 |
| 28 Dec. 2014 |
NTT
1 - 3
BIR
58%
23%
19%
|
68 | 64 | 4 | -1 |
| 26 Dec. 2014 |
MID
3 - 0
NTT
55%
25%
20%
|
69 | 74 | 5 | -1 |
| 20 Dec. 2014 |
NTT
1 - 1
LEE
63%
21%
16%
|
69 | 62 | 7 | 0 |