Derby County vs Bradford City analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
64.4%
Win probability
2.07
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.7%
5-0
1.6%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.2%
4-0
3.9%
5-1
1.5%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.6%
3-0
7.6%
4-1
3.5%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
11.9%
2-0
11%
3-1
6.8%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.6%
1-0
10.6%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.1%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.1%
20.2%
Draw
0-0
5.1%
1-1
9.5%
2-2
4.5%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
20.1%
15.4%
Win probability
0.9
Expected goals
0-1
4.6%
1-2
4.3%
2-3
1.3%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
10.5%
0-2
2.1%
1-3
1.3%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
3.7%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Jan. 2024 |
FLE
1 - 3
DER
16%
25%
60%
|
76 | 58 | 18 | 0 |
| 01 Jan. 2024 |
DER
2 - 3
POS
39%
25%
36%
|
76 | 77 | 1 | 0 |
| 29 Dec. 2023 |
OXF
2 - 3
DER
38%
27%
35%
|
76 | 71 | 5 | 0 |
| 26 Dec. 2023 |
WIG
0 - 1
DER
38%
27%
35%
|
75 | 72 | 3 | +1 |
| 21 Dec. 2023 |
DER
3 - 1
LIN
56%
25%
19%
|
75 | 69 | 6 | 0 |
Matches
Bradford City
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Jan. 2024 |
BRA
2 - 4
CRA
53%
25%
23%
|
66 | 59 | 7 | 0 |
| 01 Jan. 2024 |
CRE
1 - 0
BRA
39%
26%
35%
|
66 | 62 | 4 | 0 |
| 29 Dec. 2023 |
BRA
0 - 0
STO
29%
26%
45%
|
66 | 73 | 7 | 0 |
| 26 Dec. 2023 |
BRA
2 - 2
MOR
45%
25%
30%
|
66 | 63 | 3 | 0 |
| 22 Dec. 2023 |
DON
1 - 3
BRA
27%
27%
46%
|
65 | 56 | 9 | +1 |