Derby County vs Barnsley analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
51.3%
Win probability
1.71
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.7%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1%
4-0
2.1%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.1%
3-0
4.9%
4-1
2.3%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
7.8%
2-0
8.7%
3-1
5.5%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
15.7%
1-0
10.2%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
3.1%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.4%
23.9%
Draw
0-0
5.9%
1-1
11.3%
2-2
5.4%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
23.9%
24.8%
Win probability
1.11
Expected goals
0-1
6.6%
1-2
6.3%
2-3
2%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
15.3%
0-2
3.7%
1-3
2.3%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
6.7%
0-3
1.4%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2.2%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Jan. 2023 |
DER
4 - 0
STA
60%
23%
17%
|
69 | 59 | 10 | 0 |
| 30 Dec. 2022 |
DER
1 - 0
CAM
61%
23%
17%
|
69 | 57 | 12 | 0 |
| 27 Dec. 2022 |
BOL
0 - 0
DER
44%
28%
28%
|
69 | 66 | 3 | 0 |
| 17 Dec. 2022 |
DER
4 - 0
FOR
57%
24%
19%
|
68 | 58 | 10 | +1 |
| 10 Dec. 2022 |
BUR
1 - 1
DER
29%
28%
43%
|
68 | 56 | 12 | 0 |
Matches
Barnsley
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Jan. 2023 |
BAR
0 - 3
BOL
40%
28%
32%
|
67 | 66 | 1 | 0 |
| 29 Dec. 2022 |
BAR
2 - 1
FLE
55%
25%
20%
|
66 | 58 | 8 | +1 |
| 26 Dec. 2022 |
STA
1 - 1
BAR
35%
26%
39%
|
66 | 60 | 6 | 0 |
| 17 Dec. 2022 |
BAR
2 - 0
BUR
56%
24%
20%
|
66 | 55 | 11 | 0 |
| 02 Dec. 2022 |
POS
1 - 2
BAR
41%
26%
33%
|
65 | 63 | 2 | +1 |