Conmebol Sudamericana 1/32
Global 4-5
Danubio vs Defensor Sporting analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
44.7%
Win probability
1.43
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.5%
4-0
1.4%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.9%
3-0
3.9%
4-1
1.5%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.7%
2-0
8.2%
3-1
4.3%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.1%
+2
13.4%
1-0
11.5%
2-1
9%
3-2
2.3%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.1%
26.4%
Draw
0-0
8%
1-1
12.5%
2-2
4.9%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.4%
28.9%
Win probability
1.1
Expected goals
0-1
8.8%
1-2
6.9%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
17.7%
0-2
4.8%
1-3
2.5%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
7.9%
0-3
1.8%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.1%
-3
2.5%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.7%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Danubio
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Aug. 2005 |
DAN
0 - 1
REN
51%
25%
24%
|
78 | 69 | 9 | 0 |
| 16 Aug. 2005 |
DEF
2 - 3
DAN
60%
22%
18%
|
78 | 81 | 3 | 0 |
| 02 Jul. 2005 |
MWA
2 - 0
DAN
37%
26%
37%
|
78 | 67 | 11 | 0 |
| 26 Jun. 2005 |
JUN
1 - 1
DAN
34%
27%
40%
|
78 | 67 | 11 | 0 |
| 19 Jun. 2005 |
PAY
1 - 3
DAN
26%
27%
48%
|
78 | 63 | 15 | 0 |
Matches
Defensor Sporting
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Aug. 2005 |
CSC
2 - 1
DEF
32%
28%
40%
|
80 | 66 | 14 | 0 |
| 16 Aug. 2005 |
DEF
2 - 3
DAN
60%
22%
18%
|
81 | 78 | 3 | -1 |
| 03 Jul. 2005 |
CSC
0 - 1
DEF
32%
27%
40%
|
81 | 66 | 15 | 0 |
| 26 Jun. 2005 |
DEF
1 - 0
LFC
64%
20%
16%
|
80 | 74 | 6 | +1 |
| 19 Jun. 2005 |
CSM
1 - 2
DEF
40%
27%
33%
|
80 | 72 | 8 | 0 |