Comercial vs Portuguesa analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
19.9%
Win probability
0.88
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.2%
5-1
0.1%
+4
0.3%
3-0
0.9%
4-1
0.3%
5-2
<0%
+3
1.3%
2-0
3.1%
3-1
1.5%
4-2
0.3%
5-3
<0%
+2
4.9%
1-0
7%
2-1
5.1%
3-2
1.2%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
13.5%
24.4%
Draw
0-0
7.9%
1-1
11.5%
2-2
4.2%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.4%
55.7%
Win probability
1.66
Expected goals
0-1
13.1%
1-2
9.6%
2-3
2.3%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
25.3%
0-2
10.8%
1-3
5.3%
2-4
1%
3-5
0.1%
-2
17.2%
0-3
6%
1-4
2.2%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
8.5%
0-4
2.5%
1-5
0.7%
2-6
0.1%
-4
3.3%
0-5
0.8%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
1%
0-6
0.2%
1-7
0%
-6
0.3%
0-7
0.1%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-35%
-7%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Comercial
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Apr. 2013 |
COM
2 - 1
CAT
47%
26%
27%
|
55 | 55 | 0 | 0 |
| 06 Apr. 2013 |
CAP
2 - 1
COM
45%
25%
30%
|
55 | 53 | 2 | 0 |
| 31 Mar. 2013 |
COM
7 - 0
JUV
62%
22%
17%
|
55 | 45 | 10 | 0 |
| 23 Mar. 2013 |
RIO
1 - 0
COM
36%
26%
38%
|
56 | 48 | 8 | -1 |
| 21 Mar. 2013 |
COM
1 - 0
GRE
48%
24%
28%
|
55 | 51 | 4 | +1 |
Matches
Portuguesa
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Apr. 2013 |
POR
1 - 0
CAP
77%
16%
7%
|
75 | 54 | 21 | 0 |
| 06 Apr. 2013 |
CAT
1 - 2
POR
21%
25%
54%
|
75 | 55 | 20 | 0 |
| 04 Apr. 2013 |
NAV
0 - 0
POR
16%
23%
62%
|
75 | 51 | 24 | 0 |
| 31 Mar. 2013 |
POR
1 - 0
SAO
83%
13%
5%
|
75 | 48 | 27 | 0 |
| 24 Mar. 2013 |
SAN
1 - 1
POR
11%
18%
71%
|
75 | 48 | 27 | 0 |