Aurora vs Bolívar analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
43%
Win probability
1.54
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.6%
4-0
1.4%
5-1
0.5%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2%
3-0
3.6%
4-1
1.8%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.7%
2-0
7%
3-1
4.6%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
12.9%
1-0
9%
2-1
9%
3-2
3%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
21.6%
24.9%
Draw
0-0
5.9%
1-1
11.7%
2-2
5.8%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.9%
32.1%
Win probability
1.3
Expected goals
0-1
7.6%
1-2
7.6%
2-3
2.5%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
18.2%
0-2
4.9%
1-3
3.3%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
-2
9.1%
0-3
2.1%
1-4
1.1%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3.4%
0-4
0.7%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0%
-4
1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+7%
+37%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
6º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
20
1º
11º
5º
31
1º
4º
1º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
1º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
|
1º
|
31 | 45 |
1º
|
66.5% | |
|
2º
|
28 | 42 |
2º
|
52.5% | |
|
3º
|
24 | 35 |
3º
|
25.5% | |
|
4º
|
22 | 33 |
4º
|
17.5% | |
|
|
6º
|
20 | 32 |
5º
|
15.5% | |
|
5º
|
21 | 32 |
6º
|
16% | |
|
7º
|
20 | 31 |
7º
|
10.5% | |
|
8º
|
20 | 31 |
8º
|
13% | |
|
9º
|
20 | 31 |
9º
|
10% | |
|
11º
|
18 | 29 |
10º
|
10.5% | |
|
12º
|
16 | 27 |
11º
|
14.5% | |
|
10º
|
18 | 25 |
12º
|
19.5% | |
|
14º
|
13 | 24 |
13º
|
14.5% | |
|
13º
|
16 | 24 |
14º
|
13.5% | |
|
15º
|
11 | 22 |
15º
|
25% | |
|
16º
|
9 | 20 |
16º
|
51.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
CONMEBOL Libertadores
|
1% | 66.5% |
|
Mid-table
|
99% | 33.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Aurora
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 May. 2024 |
GUA
1 - 1
AUR
41%
27%
31%
|
70 | 65 | 5 | 0 |
| 12 May. 2024 |
AUR
3 - 1
OPE
52%
24%
24%
|
70 | 66 | 4 | 0 |
| 19 Apr. 2024 |
AUR
2 - 3
IND
57%
23%
20%
|
71 | 64 | 7 | -1 |
| 16 Apr. 2024 |
IND
0 - 1
AUR
40%
28%
32%
|
70 | 65 | 5 | +1 |
| 06 Apr. 2024 |
ROY
0 - 0
AUR
35%
28%
37%
|
70 | 62 | 8 | 0 |
Matches
Bolívar
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 May. 2024 |
BOL
4 - 1
DRT
65%
20%
16%
|
70 | 67 | 3 | 0 |
| 16 May. 2024 |
FLA
4 - 0
BOL
72%
17%
11%
|
71 | 89 | 18 | -1 |
| 12 May. 2024 |
IND
0 - 1
BOL
32%
25%
43%
|
70 | 65 | 5 | +1 |
| 09 May. 2024 |
MIL
1 - 1
BOL
51%
23%
26%
|
74 | 81 | 7 | -4 |
| 25 Apr. 2024 |
BOL
2 - 1
FLA
25%
24%
52%
|
73 | 88 | 15 | +1 |