Catania vs Brescia analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
63.8%
Win probability
2.21
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.9%
5-0
1.7%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.5%
4-0
3.8%
5-1
1.8%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
6%
3-0
7%
4-1
4%
5-2
0.9%
6-3
0.1%
+3
12%
2-0
9.4%
3-1
7.3%
4-2
2.1%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.1%
1-0
8.6%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
3.8%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23%
19.4%
Draw
0-0
3.9%
1-1
8.9%
2-2
5.1%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
19.4%
16.7%
Win probability
1.04
Expected goals
0-1
4%
1-2
4.6%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
10.8%
0-2
2.1%
1-3
1.6%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
4.2%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.3%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Catania
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Oct. 1965 |
CAT
1 - 1
BOL
36%
27%
37%
|
72 | 83 | 11 | 0 |
| 17 Oct. 1965 |
USF
3 - 0
CAT
46%
26%
28%
|
73 | 71 | 2 | -1 |
| 10 Oct. 1965 |
CAT
1 - 1
JUV
29%
27%
44%
|
72 | 87 | 15 | +1 |
| 03 Oct. 1965 |
INT
3 - 1
CAT
81%
12%
7%
|
73 | 90 | 17 | -1 |
| 26 Sep. 1965 |
CAT
0 - 3
FIO
28%
25%
47%
|
73 | 86 | 13 | 0 |
Matches
Brescia
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Oct. 1965 |
BRE
2 - 2
INT
15%
23%
62%
|
72 | 90 | 18 | 0 |
| 17 Oct. 1965 |
CAG
1 - 0
BRE
58%
24%
19%
|
72 | 76 | 4 | 0 |
| 10 Oct. 1965 |
BRE
1 - 0
SAM
50%
26%
24%
|
71 | 73 | 2 | +1 |
| 03 Oct. 1965 |
NAP
1 - 0
BRE
55%
25%
20%
|
72 | 73 | 1 | -1 |
| 26 Sep. 1965 |
BRE
2 - 0
ATL
50%
26%
24%
|
71 | 75 | 4 | +1 |