Coppa Italia Serie C Semi-finals
Global 2-1
Padova vs Lucchese Libertas analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
66.9%
Win probability
1.9
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.6%
5-0
1.6%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
2%
4-0
4.2%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.1%
+4
5.3%
3-0
8.8%
4-1
2.8%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
12%
2-0
14%
3-1
5.8%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
20.8%
1-0
14.7%
2-1
9.2%
3-2
1.9%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
26.1%
20.9%
Draw
0-0
7.8%
1-1
9.7%
2-2
3%
3-3
0.4%
4-4
<0%
0
20.9%
12.1%
Win probability
0.66
Expected goals
0-1
5.1%
1-2
3.2%
2-3
0.7%
3-4
0.1%
-1
9%
0-2
1.7%
1-3
0.7%
2-4
0.1%
-2
2.5%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.5%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Padova
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Feb. 2024 |
PAD
4 - 0
UAR
68%
22%
11%
|
64 | 50 | 14 | 0 |
| 17 Feb. 2024 |
PAD
1 - 0
PRO
74%
19%
8%
|
64 | 45 | 19 | 0 |
| 13 Feb. 2024 |
PRO
0 - 2
PAD
18%
26%
56%
|
63 | 51 | 12 | +1 |
| 10 Feb. 2024 |
PAD
1 - 1
TRE
69%
21%
10%
|
64 | 49 | 15 | -1 |
| 04 Feb. 2024 |
VIR
1 - 1
PAD
24%
28%
49%
|
64 | 55 | 9 | 0 |
Matches
Lucchese Libertas
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Feb. 2024 |
PES
1 - 0
ASL
66%
21%
13%
|
54 | 59 | 5 | 0 |
| 18 Feb. 2024 |
JS2
1 - 1
ASL
53%
26%
21%
|
54 | 55 | 1 | 0 |
| 14 Feb. 2024 |
ASL
0 - 2
SAS
47%
27%
26%
|
54 | 53 | 1 | 0 |
| 10 Feb. 2024 |
PIN
1 - 1
ASL
41%
29%
31%
|
55 | 52 | 3 | -1 |
| 04 Feb. 2024 |
ASL
2 - 1
SPA
29%
29%
42%
|
54 | 60 | 6 | +1 |