Bury vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
61.7%
Win probability
2.06
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.7%
5-0
1.4%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2%
4-0
3.5%
5-1
1.5%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.2%
3-0
6.8%
4-1
3.5%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
11.1%
2-0
9.9%
3-1
6.8%
4-2
1.8%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
18.7%
1-0
9.6%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.4%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.6%
20.6%
Draw
0-0
4.6%
1-1
9.6%
2-2
5%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
20.6%
17.7%
Win probability
1.01
Expected goals
0-1
4.7%
1-2
4.9%
2-3
1.7%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
11.6%
0-2
2.4%
1-3
1.6%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
-2
4.5%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.3%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-3%
+9%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Bury
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 May. 1927 |
SHE
2 - 0
BCF
65%
19%
16%
|
79 | 81 | 2 | 0 |
| 04 May. 1927 |
BCF
3 - 2
ARS
54%
22%
24%
|
79 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
| 18 Apr. 1927 |
LEI
1 - 1
BCF
62%
20%
18%
|
79 | 79 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 Apr. 1927 |
LIV
2 - 2
BCF
63%
20%
17%
|
79 | 83 | 4 | 0 |
| 15 Apr. 1927 |
BCF
0 - 0
LEI
58%
22%
21%
|
79 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Apr. 1927 |
DER
2 - 1
WBA
62%
20%
18%
|
78 | 78 | 0 | 0 |
| 23 Apr. 1927 |
SUN
1 - 2
DER
75%
15%
10%
|
78 | 84 | 6 | 0 |
| 18 Apr. 1927 |
DER
2 - 2
MUD
63%
20%
18%
|
78 | 77 | 1 | 0 |
| 16 Apr. 1927 |
DER
4 - 4
HUR
44%
24%
32%
|
78 | 87 | 9 | 0 |
| 15 Apr. 1927 |
MUD
2 - 2
DER
51%
25%
24%
|
78 | 77 | 1 | 0 |