Köln vs Werder Bremen analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
45.2%
Win probability
1.68
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
8-1
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.5%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.8%
4-0
1.6%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.5%
3-0
3.8%
4-1
2.2%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
6.5%
2-0
6.8%
3-1
5.1%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
13.7%
1-0
8.1%
2-1
9.2%
3-2
3.5%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
21.5%
23.8%
Draw
0-0
4.8%
1-1
11%
2-2
6.2%
3-3
1.6%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
23.8%
31%
Win probability
1.35
Expected goals
0-1
6.5%
1-2
7.4%
2-3
2.8%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
17.3%
0-2
4.4%
1-3
3.3%
2-4
0.9%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
8.9%
0-3
2%
1-4
1.1%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
3.4%
0-4
0.7%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-3%
+7%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
11º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
42
3º
13º
11º
36
5º
13º
13º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
13º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
71 | 71 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
71 | 71 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
66 | 66 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
4º
|
62 | 62 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
5º
|
59 | 59 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
50 | 50 |
6º
|
0% | |
|
7º
|
50 | 50 |
7º
|
0% | |
|
8º
|
49 | 49 |
8º
|
100% | |
|
9º
|
46 | 46 |
9º
|
100% | |
|
10º
|
43 | 43 |
10º
|
100% | |
|
|
11º
|
42 | 42 |
11º
|
100% | |
|
12º
|
36 | 36 |
12º
|
0% | |
|
|
13º
|
36 | 36 |
13º
|
0% | |
|
14º
|
35 | 35 |
14º
|
100% | |
|
15º
|
34 | 34 |
15º
|
100% | |
|
16º
|
33 | 33 |
16º
|
100% | |
|
17º
|
31 | 31 |
17º
|
100% | |
|
18º
|
29 | 29 |
18º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Champions League
|
0% | 0% |
|
Europa League
|
0% | 0% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
100% | 100% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Köln
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Jan. 2023 |
KOL
5 - 0
LOM
64%
20%
16%
|
80 | 67 | 13 | 0 |
| 07 Jan. 2023 |
KOL
4 - 0
HSV
47%
23%
30%
|
80 | 77 | 3 | 0 |
| 21 Dec. 2022 |
KOL
1 - 0
MEP
83%
12%
5%
|
80 | 52 | 28 | 0 |
| 19 Nov. 2022 |
KOL
2 - 4
STU
47%
24%
29%
|
80 | 78 | 2 | 0 |
| 12 Nov. 2022 |
HER
2 - 0
KOL
29%
24%
48%
|
81 | 77 | 4 | -1 |
Matches
Werder Bremen
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Jan. 2023 |
S04
0 - 1
BRE
31%
23%
46%
|
78 | 73 | 5 | 0 |
| 08 Jan. 2023 |
BRE
2 - 2
STG
34%
23%
43%
|
78 | 79 | 1 | 0 |
| 04 Jan. 2023 |
MUR
0 - 2
BRE
7%
15%
78%
|
78 | 57 | 21 | 0 |
| 15 Dec. 2022 |
BRE
1 - 0
MEP
79%
15%
6%
|
78 | 52 | 26 | 0 |
| 15 Nov. 2022 |
HEE
1 - 3
BRE
2%
8%
90%
|
78 | 34 | 44 | 0 |