Europa League Final
Global 3-5
Köln vs Real Madrid analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
48.7%
Win probability
1.85
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.7%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.1%
4-0
1.9%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.2%
3-0
4.2%
4-1
2.7%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
7.6%
2-0
6.8%
3-1
5.8%
4-2
1.8%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
14.7%
1-0
7.3%
2-1
9.3%
3-2
4%
4-3
0.8%
5-4
0.1%
+1
21.6%
22.6%
Draw
0-0
4%
1-1
10.1%
2-2
6.4%
3-3
1.8%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
22.6%
28.7%
Win probability
1.38
Expected goals
0-1
5.4%
1-2
7%
2-3
3%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
16.1%
0-2
3.8%
1-3
3.2%
2-4
1%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
8.2%
0-3
1.7%
1-4
1.1%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
3.1%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Köln
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Apr. 1986 |
RMA
5 - 1
KOL
78%
13%
9%
|
80 | 88 | 8 | 0 |
| 26 Apr. 1986 |
KOL
3 - 0
RTV
65%
20%
15%
|
80 | 76 | 4 | 0 |
| 22 Apr. 1986 |
WAL
1 - 1
KOL
43%
25%
33%
|
80 | 78 | 2 | 0 |
| 19 Apr. 1986 |
KOL
1 - 3
F95
66%
19%
16%
|
81 | 73 | 8 | -1 |
| 16 Apr. 1986 |
KSV
3 - 3
KOL
47%
23%
30%
|
81 | 79 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Real Madrid
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Apr. 1986 |
RMA
5 - 1
KOL
78%
13%
9%
|
88 | 80 | 8 | 0 |
| 20 Apr. 1986 |
RSO
5 - 3
RMA
35%
26%
39%
|
88 | 83 | 5 | 0 |
| 16 Apr. 1986 |
RMA
5 - 1
INT
72%
18%
11%
|
88 | 85 | 3 | 0 |
| 12 Apr. 1986 |
RMA
2 - 1
SPO
80%
14%
6%
|
88 | 83 | 5 | 0 |
| 09 Apr. 1986 |
RMA
3 - 2
ZAR
69%
19%
12%
|
88 | 85 | 3 | 0 |