Köln vs Heidenheim analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
42.5%
Win probability
1.57
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.6%
4-0
1.4%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
2%
3-0
3.5%
4-1
1.8%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.7%
2-0
6.6%
3-1
4.7%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
12.7%
1-0
8.5%
2-1
9%
3-2
3.2%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
21.2%
24.5%
Draw
0-0
5.4%
1-1
11.4%
2-2
6.1%
3-3
1.4%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.5%
32.9%
Win probability
1.35
Expected goals
0-1
7.3%
1-2
7.7%
2-3
2.7%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
18.3%
0-2
4.9%
1-3
3.5%
2-4
0.9%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
9.5%
0-3
2.2%
1-4
1.2%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3.7%
0-4
0.8%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-3%
+14%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
17º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
27
11º
18º
17º
42
8º
16º
8º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
8º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
90 | 90 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
73 | 73 |
2º
|
100% | |
|
3º
|
72 | 72 |
3º
|
100% | |
|
4º
|
65 | 65 |
4º
|
100% | |
|
5º
|
63 | 63 |
5º
|
100% | |
|
6º
|
47 | 47 |
6º
|
100% | |
|
7º
|
46 | 46 |
7º
|
100% | |
|
|
8º
|
42 | 42 |
8º
|
0% | |
|
9º
|
42 | 42 |
9º
|
0% | |
|
10º
|
42 | 42 |
10º
|
100% | |
|
11º
|
39 | 39 |
11º
|
100% | |
|
12º
|
37 | 37 |
12º
|
100% | |
|
13º
|
35 | 35 |
13º
|
100% | |
|
14º
|
34 | 34 |
14º
|
100% | |
|
15º
|
33 | 33 |
15º
|
0% | |
|
16º
|
33 | 33 |
16º
|
0% | |
|
|
17º
|
27 | 27 |
17º
|
100% | |
|
18º
|
17 | 17 |
18º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Champions League
|
0% | 0% |
|
Europa League
|
0% | 0% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
0% | 100% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
100% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Köln
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Jan. 2024 |
ROT
4 - 4
KOL
16%
20%
64%
|
82 | 61 | 21 | 0 |
| 20 Dec. 2023 |
FCU
2 - 0
KOL
43%
25%
32%
|
83 | 85 | 2 | -1 |
| 17 Dec. 2023 |
SCF
2 - 0
KOL
56%
22%
22%
|
83 | 88 | 5 | 0 |
| 10 Dec. 2023 |
KOL
0 - 0
M05
39%
25%
36%
|
82 | 83 | 1 | +1 |
| 01 Dec. 2023 |
DAR
0 - 1
KOL
31%
24%
45%
|
82 | 78 | 4 | 0 |
Matches
Heidenheim
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Jan. 2024 |
HEI
2 - 0
PAD
45%
23%
32%
|
80 | 78 | 2 | 0 |
| 20 Dec. 2023 |
HEI
3 - 2
SCF
25%
25%
51%
|
79 | 88 | 9 | +1 |
| 16 Dec. 2023 |
M05
0 - 1
HEI
46%
24%
30%
|
79 | 83 | 4 | 0 |
| 09 Dec. 2023 |
HEI
3 - 2
DAR
42%
25%
33%
|
78 | 78 | 0 | +1 |
| 02 Dec. 2023 |
RBL
2 - 1
HEI
77%
15%
8%
|
78 | 93 | 15 | 0 |