Champions League first phase set for berserk finale

Top 8 places up for grabs

There is a real incentive for finishing in the top eight places of the giant, 36-team standings - those sides will skip the two-legged knockout round play-offs next month, getting some precious rest as they advance straight to the last 16 in March.

Liverpool, with seven wins out of seven, and Barcelona are the only two teams to have already guaranteed a place in the last 16 after seven games in the league phase. Arsenal, Inter Milan, Atletico Madrid, AC Milan, Atalanta and Bayer Leverkusen occupy the other six spots for now, but so much could change on the final night.

After all, Stuttgart in 24th position are only three points behind Leverkusen in eighth, with 15 sides in between them. Arsenal and Inter need only draw away to Girona and at home to Monaco respectively in order to secure their last-16 spots.

With so little between teams in terms of points, so much could down boil down to goal difference, setting up a potentially chaotic final night.

 

January 27, 2025

Who could be eliminated?

Big names like reigning champions Real Madrid, last season's runners-up Borussia Dortmund, Bayern Munich and Juventus are all still hoping to clamber into the top eight, but are already guaranteed to at least be in February's play-off round.

In fact, only nine of the 36 teams will come into the final matchday still fighting to secure qualification for the next phase, including former European Cup winners PSV Eindhoven and Benfica. The biggest name under threat is Manchester City, with the 2023 champions currently languishing in 25th position, one place and two points outside the qualifying spots.

Pep Guardiola's team were beaten 4-2 away at PSG last week and have taken a single point from their last four games in the competition. "Today we don't deserve it," Guardiola said when asked following the PSG defeat if the new format was fair.

"What is the argument that it isn't fair? I said to the players to accept it and recover. We have to recover our game, that is what we have to do." There is jeopardy for City, but at the same time they know a win in their last match will take them through, and they will be expected to overcome Club Brugge at the Etihad Stadium.

PSG's win at home to City eased their fears of being eliminated, although it could still happen - the French champions go to Stuttgart, where a draw will be enough to take both teams through. For others, the heaviest price to pay for inconsistent results in the league phase will be having to go into the play-offs.

"The table does not lie. At the moment we aren't a top team. Top teams don't lose as many games. But we still have the feeling that we're in a process and on a good path," said Bayern's Joshua Kimmich after his team's 3-0 loss at Feyenoord last week.

 

January 27, 2025

What will happen next?

The teams finishing from ninth to 24th in the standings will go into Friday's draw for the play-offs, with the first legs to be played on February 11th and 12th and the return matches a week later.

The teams finishing between ninth and 16th will be seeded, and the draw will be based on a pre-determined bracket. This means the teams finishing ninth and 10th will face the side either in 23rd or 24th place, while 15th and 16th will face either 17th or 18th.

There is nothing to stop teams from the same country facing each other, and teams can also be drawn against opponents they already met in the league phase.

Much is bound to change on Wednesday, but based on the current standings PSG could play French rivals Lille in the play-offs, while Bayern or Real Madrid could play Juventus or Celtic.