Winchester City vs Frome Town analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
49.5%
Win probability
1.96
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.4%
5-0
0.8%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.2%
4-0
2%
5-1
1.2%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.5%
3-0
4.1%
4-1
2.9%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
8.1%
2-0
6.3%
3-1
6%
4-2
2.1%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
14.9%
1-0
6.5%
2-1
9.2%
3-2
4.4%
4-3
1%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.2%
21.9%
Draw
0-0
3.3%
1-1
9.4%
2-2
6.7%
3-3
2.1%
4-4
0.4%
5-5
<0%
0
21.9%
28.6%
Win probability
1.45
Expected goals
0-1
4.8%
1-2
6.8%
2-3
3.2%
3-4
0.8%
4-5
0.1%
5-6
0%
-1
15.7%
0-2
3.5%
1-3
3.3%
2-4
1.2%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
8.2%
0-3
1.7%
1-4
1.2%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0.1%
-3
3.3%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
1.1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-13%
+45%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
16º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
31
15º
20º
17º
25
6º
22º
15º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
21º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
67 | 96 |
1º
|
76.5% | |
|
2º
|
59 | 90 |
2º
|
69.5% | |
|
5º
|
44 | 77 |
3º
|
36.5% | |
|
3º
|
53 | 76 |
4º
|
27% | |
|
6º
|
43 | 73 |
5º
|
25% | |
|
4º
|
47 | 68 |
6º
|
19% | |
|
7º
|
39 | 63 |
7º
|
19% | |
|
9º
|
36 | 60 |
8º
|
20.5% | |
|
13º
|
33 | 57 |
9º
|
11% | |
|
8º
|
37 | 57 |
10º
|
16% | |
|
10º
|
36 | 54 |
11º
|
8.5% | |
|
11º
|
36 | 54 |
12º
|
11.5% | |
|
15º
|
31 | 52 |
13º
|
6% | |
|
12º
|
35 | 50 |
14º
|
11.5% | |
|
|
21º
|
25 | 46 |
15º
|
10% | |
|
17º
|
31 | 46 |
16º
|
7% | |
|
|
16º
|
31 | 46 |
17º
|
13% | |
|
18º
|
30 | 45 |
18º
|
12.5% | |
|
14º
|
32 | 44 |
19º
|
13% | |
|
19º
|
29 | 44 |
20º
|
12.5% | |
|
20º
|
26 | 40 |
21º
|
27% | |
|
22º
|
19 | 27 |
22º
|
91.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
68% | 68% |
|
Relegation
|
32% | 32% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Winchester City
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Jan. 2025 |
BAS
2 - 0
WIN
49%
22%
29%
|
34 | 34 | 0 | 0 |
| 04 Jan. 2025 |
WIN
3 - 1
MAR
74%
15%
11%
|
34 | 23 | 11 | 0 |
| 01 Jan. 2025 |
DOR
1 - 0
WIN
59%
20%
21%
|
35 | 40 | 5 | -1 |
| 28 Dec. 2024 |
GOS
1 - 3
WIN
67%
19%
14%
|
34 | 44 | 10 | +1 |
| 26 Dec. 2024 |
WIN
1 - 4
AFT
19%
23%
58%
|
36 | 50 | 14 | -2 |
Matches
Frome Town
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Dec. 2024 |
BRA
4 - 1
FRO
72%
17%
12%
|
33 | 43 | 10 | 0 |
| 26 Dec. 2024 |
FRO
5 - 0
PLY
38%
24%
38%
|
32 | 34 | 2 | +1 |
| 14 Dec. 2024 |
FRO
3 - 0
SWI
22%
20%
58%
|
28 | 37 | 9 | +4 |
| 03 Dec. 2024 |
HAN
0 - 2
FRO
73%
16%
11%
|
27 | 42 | 15 | +1 |
| 30 Nov. 2024 |
MAR
2 - 1
FRO
42%
23%
36%
|
28 | 26 | 2 | -1 |