Willem II vs NAC Breda analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
56.9%
Win probability
1.83
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.4%
5-0
1%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.4%
4-0
2.8%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4%
3-0
6%
4-1
2.8%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
9.4%
2-0
9.9%
3-1
6%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
17.5%
1-0
10.8%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.2%
22.7%
Draw
0-0
5.9%
1-1
10.8%
2-2
4.9%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
22.7%
20.3%
Win probability
1
Expected goals
0-1
5.9%
1-2
5.4%
2-3
1.6%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
13.2%
0-2
2.9%
1-3
1.8%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
-2
5.2%
0-3
1%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.5%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-8%
+5%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
13º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
23
6º
13º
10º
26
7º
17º
13º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
9º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
50 | 76 |
1º
|
60% | |
|
2º
|
48 | 72 |
2º
|
49% | |
|
3º
|
42 | 66 |
3º
|
41% | |
|
5º
|
36 | 63 |
4º
|
32.5% | |
|
4º
|
37 | 61 |
5º
|
26% | |
|
6º
|
35 | 59 |
6º
|
22.5% | |
|
7º
|
32 | 51 |
7º
|
44% | |
|
11º
|
24 | 45 |
8º
|
26.5% | |
|
12º
|
24 | 42 |
9º
|
8.5% | |
|
|
13º
|
23 | 41 |
10º
|
17% | |
|
8º
|
26 | 41 |
11º
|
17.5% | |
|
10º
|
25 | 40 |
12º
|
9.5% | |
|
|
9º
|
26 | 38 |
13º
|
15% | |
|
14º
|
21 | 36 |
14º
|
16.5% | |
|
16º
|
20 | 35 |
15º
|
18% | |
|
15º
|
21 | 35 |
16º
|
23.5% | |
|
17º
|
14 | 26 |
17º
|
65.5% | |
|
18º
|
10 | 19 |
18º
|
86% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Champions League
|
0% | 0% |
|
Champions League qualifying phase
|
0% | 0% |
|
Europa League qualifying phase
|
0% | 0% |
|
Next round
|
15.5% | 4% |
|
Mid-table
|
79% | 85% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
5.5% | 10% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 1% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Willem II
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov. 2024 |
AZA
1 - 2
WIL
65%
19%
16%
|
82 | 88 | 6 | 0 |
| 02 Nov. 2024 |
WIL
0 - 1
TWE
28%
24%
49%
|
82 | 88 | 6 | 0 |
| 30 Oct. 2024 |
GEN
2 - 3
WIL
7%
14%
79%
|
82 | 52 | 30 | 0 |
| 27 Oct. 2024 |
AJA
1 - 0
WIL
62%
21%
18%
|
82 | 88 | 6 | 0 |
| 20 Oct. 2024 |
WIL
0 - 0
FOR
59%
22%
19%
|
82 | 77 | 5 | 0 |
Matches
NAC Breda
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Nov. 2024 |
NAC
0 - 3
PSV
13%
19%
68%
|
74 | 88 | 14 | 0 |
| 02 Nov. 2024 |
HER
2 - 0
NAC
50%
24%
27%
|
74 | 77 | 3 | 0 |
| 30 Oct. 2024 |
BAR
2 - 1
NAC
22%
20%
59%
|
75 | 62 | 13 | -1 |
| 26 Oct. 2024 |
NAC
4 - 1
RKC
42%
26%
31%
|
74 | 73 | 1 | +1 |
| 20 Oct. 2024 |
ZWO
1 - 2
NAC
50%
24%
26%
|
74 | 79 | 5 | 0 |