Willem II vs AZ Alkmaar analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
31.9%
Win probability
1.27
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.2%
4-0
0.7%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
<0%
+4
1%
3-0
2.1%
4-1
1%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
3.3%
2-0
5%
3-1
3.2%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.1%
+2
9%
1-0
7.9%
2-1
7.5%
3-2
2.4%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
18.3%
25.2%
Draw
0-0
6.2%
1-1
11.9%
2-2
5.7%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
25.2%
42.9%
Win probability
1.51
Expected goals
0-1
9.4%
1-2
9%
2-3
2.9%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0%
-1
21.8%
0-2
7.1%
1-3
4.5%
2-4
1.1%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
12.8%
0-3
3.6%
1-4
1.7%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
5.6%
0-4
1.3%
1-5
0.5%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1.9%
0-5
0.4%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.6%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-8%
+1%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
13º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
23
6º
13º
10º
37
2º
6º
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
4º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
50 | 76 |
1º
|
60% | |
|
2º
|
48 | 72 |
2º
|
49% | |
|
3º
|
42 | 66 |
3º
|
41% | |
|
5º
|
36 | 63 |
4º
|
32.5% | |
|
|
4º
|
37 | 61 |
5º
|
26% | |
|
6º
|
35 | 59 |
6º
|
22.5% | |
|
7º
|
32 | 51 |
7º
|
44% | |
|
11º
|
24 | 45 |
8º
|
26.5% | |
|
12º
|
24 | 42 |
9º
|
8.5% | |
|
|
13º
|
23 | 41 |
10º
|
17% | |
|
8º
|
26 | 41 |
11º
|
17.5% | |
|
10º
|
25 | 40 |
12º
|
9.5% | |
|
9º
|
26 | 38 |
13º
|
15% | |
|
14º
|
21 | 36 |
14º
|
16.5% | |
|
16º
|
20 | 35 |
15º
|
18% | |
|
15º
|
21 | 35 |
16º
|
23.5% | |
|
17º
|
14 | 26 |
17º
|
65.5% | |
|
18º
|
10 | 19 |
18º
|
86% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Champions League
|
0% | 1% |
|
Champions League qualifying phase
|
0% | 9.5% |
|
Europa League qualifying phase
|
0% | 17% |
|
Next round
|
15.5% | 72.5% |
|
Mid-table
|
79% | 0% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
5.5% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Willem II
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Jan. 2025 |
RKC
2 - 0
WIL
26%
24%
49%
|
82 | 75 | 7 | 0 |
| 18 Jan. 2025 |
WIL
1 - 1
FEY
25%
22%
53%
|
82 | 88 | 6 | 0 |
| 12 Jan. 2025 |
TWE
6 - 2
WIL
57%
23%
20%
|
82 | 88 | 6 | 0 |
| 22 Dec. 2024 |
WIL
4 - 1
NEC
38%
25%
37%
|
82 | 84 | 2 | 0 |
| 19 Dec. 2024 |
NOO
2 - 1
WIL
7%
14%
79%
|
82 | 53 | 29 | 0 |
Matches
AZ Alkmaar
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jan. 2025 |
FTC
4 - 3
AZA
20%
22%
58%
|
88 | 77 | 11 | 0 |
| 26 Jan. 2025 |
AZA
1 - 2
SPA
62%
21%
18%
|
88 | 82 | 6 | 0 |
| 23 Jan. 2025 |
AZA
1 - 0
ROM
25%
25%
50%
|
88 | 95 | 7 | 0 |
| 18 Jan. 2025 |
UTR
0 - 0
AZA
49%
24%
27%
|
88 | 88 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 Jan. 2025 |
AZA
2 - 0
AJA
43%
23%
34%
|
88 | 88 | 0 | 0 |