Werder Bremen vs Mainz 05 analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
33.7%
Win probability
1.38
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.3%
4-0
0.8%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1.2%
3-0
2.3%
4-1
1.2%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
3.9%
2-0
5%
3-1
3.6%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
9.7%
1-0
7.2%
2-1
7.8%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
18.5%
24.4%
Draw
0-0
5.2%
1-1
11.3%
2-2
6.1%
3-3
1.5%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.4%
41.9%
Win probability
1.57
Expected goals
0-1
8.2%
1-2
8.9%
2-3
3.2%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
20.9%
0-2
6.4%
1-3
4.6%
2-4
1.3%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
12.5%
0-3
3.4%
1-4
1.8%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0%
-3
5.6%
0-4
1.3%
1-5
0.6%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
2%
0-5
0.4%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.6%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+8%
+8%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
10º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
30
7º
12º
11º
32
5º
15º
10º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
7º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
54 | 86 |
1º
|
97% | |
|
2º
|
46 | 75 |
2º
|
94% | |
|
3º
|
39 | 60 |
3º
|
35% | |
|
5º
|
33 | 60 |
4º
|
26.5% | |
|
4º
|
35 | 58 |
5º
|
22.5% | |
|
11º
|
29 | 55 |
6º
|
24% | |
|
6º
|
33 | 51 |
7º
|
16.5% | |
|
8º
|
31 | 49 |
8º
|
16% | |
|
9º
|
30 | 48 |
9º
|
18.5% | |
|
|
7º
|
32 | 47 |
10º
|
21.5% | |
|
|
10º
|
30 | 45 |
11º
|
26.5% | |
|
12º
|
27 | 39 |
12º
|
36.5% | |
|
13º
|
24 | 36 |
13º
|
30.5% | |
|
14º
|
21 | 33 |
14º
|
30% | |
|
15º
|
18 | 33 |
15º
|
27% | |
|
16º
|
14 | 26 |
16º
|
34% | |
|
17º
|
12 | 24 |
17º
|
34.5% | |
|
18º
|
10 | 22 |
18º
|
51% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Champions League
|
1.5% | 1.5% |
|
Europa League
|
0.5% | 4% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
4.5% | 5.5% |
|
Mid-table
|
93.5% | 89% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Werder Bremen
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Jan. 2025 |
BVB
2 - 2
BRE
72%
17%
12%
|
89 | 96 | 7 | 0 |
| 19 Jan. 2025 |
BRE
0 - 2
AUG
51%
23%
25%
|
89 | 87 | 2 | 0 |
| 15 Jan. 2025 |
BRE
3 - 3
HEI
50%
24%
26%
|
89 | 86 | 3 | 0 |
| 12 Jan. 2025 |
RBL
4 - 2
BRE
71%
18%
12%
|
89 | 97 | 8 | 0 |
| 05 Jan. 2025 |
BRE
2 - 3
TWE
47%
24%
30%
|
89 | 88 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
Mainz 05
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Jan. 2025 |
M05
2 - 0
STU
22%
23%
55%
|
91 | 95 | 4 | 0 |
| 19 Jan. 2025 |
FCU
2 - 1
M05
31%
25%
44%
|
91 | 89 | 2 | 0 |
| 14 Jan. 2025 |
LEV
1 - 0
M05
75%
16%
9%
|
91 | 99 | 8 | 0 |
| 11 Jan. 2025 |
M05
2 - 0
RTV
57%
23%
20%
|
91 | 84 | 7 | 0 |
| 21 Dec. 2024 |
EIN
1 - 3
M05
51%
24%
25%
|
90 | 93 | 3 | +1 |