Werder Bremen vs B. Dortmund analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
11.5%
Win probability
0.84
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.1%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.1%
3-0
0.4%
4-1
0.2%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.6%
2-0
1.4%
3-1
0.9%
4-2
0.2%
5-3
<0%
+2
2.6%
1-0
3.4%
2-1
3.4%
3-2
1.1%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
8.1%
17.2%
Draw
0-0
4.1%
1-1
8.1%
2-2
4%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
17.1%
71.3%
Win probability
2.36
Expected goals
0-1
9.7%
1-2
9.5%
2-3
3.1%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
22.9%
0-2
11.4%
1-3
7.5%
2-4
1.8%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
21%
0-3
9%
1-4
4.4%
2-5
0.9%
3-6
0.1%
-3
14.3%
0-4
5.3%
1-5
2.1%
2-6
0.3%
3-7
0%
-4
7.7%
0-5
2.5%
1-6
0.8%
2-7
0.1%
-5
3.4%
0-6
1%
1-7
0.3%
2-8
0%
-6
1.3%
0-7
0.3%
1-8
0.1%
-7
0.4%
0-8
0.1%
1-9
0%
-8
0.1%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+6%
+1%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
15º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
2
10º
15º
14º
7
1º
4º
4º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
2º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
9 | 85 |
1º
|
77.5% | |
|
5º
|
6 | 74 |
2º
|
33.5% | |
|
3º
|
7 | 73 |
3º
|
29.5% | |
|
|
2º
|
7 | 72 |
4º
|
31% | |
|
9º
|
4 | 58 |
5º
|
35% | |
|
6º
|
6 | 52 |
6º
|
17.5% | |
|
7º
|
6 | 51 |
7º
|
18% | |
|
12º
|
3 | 43 |
8º
|
12.5% | |
|
13º
|
3 | 43 |
9º
|
12% | |
|
4º
|
6 | 40 |
10º
|
13.5% | |
|
11º
|
3 | 40 |
11º
|
13% | |
|
8º
|
5 | 39 |
12º
|
13% | |
|
14º
|
2 | 38 |
13º
|
15% | |
|
|
15º
|
2 | 36 |
14º
|
9.5% | |
|
10º
|
4 | 31 |
15º
|
15.5% | |
|
17º
|
0 | 28 |
16º
|
10% | |
|
16º
|
0 | 27 |
17º
|
16.5% | |
|
18º
|
0 | 25 |
18º
|
27.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champion
|
0% | 7.5% |
|
Champions League
|
0% | 78.5% |
|
Europa League
|
1% | 10.5% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
2% | 3% |
|
Mid-table
|
75.5% | 0.5% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
11.5% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
10% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Werder Bremen
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug. 2024 |
AUG
2 - 2
BRE
35%
24%
41%
|
86 | 84 | 2 | 0 |
| 19 Aug. 2024 |
COT
1 - 3
BRE
10%
16%
73%
|
85 | 61 | 24 | +1 |
| 10 Aug. 2024 |
REN
1 - 1
BRE
55%
21%
23%
|
85 | 89 | 4 | 0 |
| 03 Aug. 2024 |
COV
1 - 2
BRE
30%
23%
47%
|
85 | 80 | 5 | 0 |
| 26 Jul. 2024 |
BRE
2 - 2
SHW
64%
21%
15%
|
85 | 75 | 10 | 0 |
Matches
B. Dortmund
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug. 2024 |
BVB
2 - 0
EIN
66%
19%
15%
|
96 | 90 | 6 | 0 |
| 17 Aug. 2024 |
FCP
1 - 4
BVB
8%
15%
77%
|
96 | 58 | 38 | 0 |
| 10 Aug. 2024 |
BVB
2 - 0
ASV
69%
18%
13%
|
96 | 91 | 5 | 0 |
| 06 Aug. 2024 |
BVB
2 - 2
VIL
69%
17%
14%
|
96 | 90 | 6 | 0 |
| 24 Jul. 2024 |
CER
2 - 3
BVB
6%
14%
80%
|
96 | 81 | 15 | 0 |