Weiden vs Fortuna Regensburg analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
52.3%
Win probability
2.26
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
9-1
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.6%
5-0
1%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
1.8%
4-0
2.2%
5-1
1.6%
6-2
0.5%
7-3
0.1%
8-4
<0%
+4
4.5%
3-0
4%
4-1
3.6%
5-2
1.3%
6-3
0.3%
7-4
<0%
+3
9.3%
2-0
5.3%
3-1
6.4%
4-2
3%
5-3
0.7%
6-4
0.1%
7-5
<0%
+2
15.5%
1-0
4.6%
2-1
8.5%
3-2
5.2%
4-3
1.6%
5-4
0.3%
6-5
<0%
+1
20.3%
20.1%
Draw
0-0
2.1%
1-1
7.5%
2-2
6.9%
3-3
2.8%
4-4
0.6%
5-5
0.1%
0
20.1%
27.6%
Win probability
1.62
Expected goals
0-1
3.3%
1-2
6.1%
2-3
3.7%
3-4
1.1%
4-5
0.2%
5-6
0%
-1
14.6%
0-2
2.7%
1-3
3.3%
2-4
1.5%
3-5
0.4%
4-6
0.1%
-2
8%
0-3
1.5%
1-4
1.3%
2-5
0.5%
3-6
0.1%
4-7
0%
-3
3.4%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
1.2%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+3%
+18%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
33
2º
10º
8º
30
5º
18º
5º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
11º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
2º
|
46 | 72 |
1º
|
42.5% | |
|
4º
|
43 | 69 |
2º
|
31% | |
|
3º
|
46 | 69 |
3º
|
37% | |
|
1º
|
48 | 65 |
4º
|
50.5% | |
|
|
11º
|
30 | 53 |
5º
|
35% | |
|
7º
|
32 | 50 |
6º
|
20.5% | |
|
8º
|
31 | 49 |
7º
|
16.5% | |
|
|
5º
|
33 | 48 |
8º
|
15.5% | |
|
6º
|
33 | 47 |
9º
|
11% | |
|
12º
|
30 | 44 |
10º
|
12% | |
|
13º
|
26 | 44 |
11º
|
15% | |
|
9º
|
31 | 43 |
12º
|
17% | |
|
10º
|
31 | 42 |
13º
|
21% | |
|
14º
|
25 | 40 |
14º
|
21% | |
|
15º
|
21 | 33 |
15º
|
25.5% | |
|
16º
|
21 | 33 |
16º
|
41% | |
|
17º
|
16 | 25 |
17º
|
70% | |
|
18º
|
10 | 15 |
18º
|
92% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
97.5% | 99% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
2.5% | 1% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Weiden
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Jul. 2024 |
ING
1 - 0
WEI
65%
19%
16%
|
39 | 47 | 8 | 0 |
| 20 Jul. 2024 |
WEI
2 - 1
EIC
26%
22%
51%
|
37 | 46 | 9 | +2 |
| 18 May. 2024 |
SVO
0 - 6
WEI
11%
15%
73%
|
37 | 15 | 22 | 0 |
| 10 May. 2024 |
WEI
5 - 0
DEF
87%
9%
4%
|
36 | 15 | 21 | +1 |
| 03 May. 2024 |
WEI
1 - 0
BAD
87%
9%
5%
|
36 | 18 | 18 | 0 |
Matches
Fortuna Regensburg
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Jul. 2024 |
REG
1 - 2
TSV
36%
24%
40%
|
37 | 45 | 8 | 0 |
| 20 Jul. 2024 |
ASV
5 - 2
REG
50%
23%
27%
|
39 | 43 | 4 | -2 |
| 18 May. 2024 |
REG
1 - 0
ELT
28%
23%
49%
|
37 | 46 | 9 | +2 |
| 10 May. 2024 |
NEU
1 - 4
REG
50%
22%
28%
|
35 | 39 | 4 | +2 |
| 04 May. 2024 |
REG
1 - 0
WUR
72%
15%
13%
|
34 | 28 | 6 | +1 |