Watford vs Derby County analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
45.8%
Win probability
1.46
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.6%
4-0
1.5%
5-1
0.5%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2%
3-0
4.1%
4-1
1.6%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
6%
2-0
8.4%
3-1
4.4%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
13.8%
1-0
11.4%
2-1
9.1%
3-2
2.4%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.3%
26.1%
Draw
0-0
7.8%
1-1
12.4%
2-2
4.9%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.1%
28.1%
Win probability
1.09
Expected goals
0-1
8.5%
1-2
6.7%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
17.3%
0-2
4.6%
1-3
2.4%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
7.6%
0-3
1.7%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.1%
-3
2.4%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+7%
+6%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Watford
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Aug. 2024 |
WAT
3 - 0
STO
46%
27%
28%
|
77 | 76 | 1 | 0 |
| 13 Aug. 2024 |
WAT
5 - 0
MKD
67%
19%
14%
|
76 | 60 | 16 | +1 |
| 10 Aug. 2024 |
MIL
2 - 3
WAT
35%
28%
36%
|
76 | 74 | 2 | 0 |
| 03 Aug. 2024 |
WAT
1 - 1
BRE
19%
22%
59%
|
75 | 89 | 14 | +1 |
| 30 Jul. 2024 |
WYC
3 - 2
WAT
31%
25%
44%
|
75 | 68 | 7 | 0 |
Matches
Derby County
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Aug. 2024 |
DER
1 - 0
MID
25%
24%
50%
|
75 | 82 | 7 | 0 |
| 13 Aug. 2024 |
DER
2 - 1
CHE
67%
19%
14%
|
75 | 59 | 16 | 0 |
| 09 Aug. 2024 |
BBU
4 - 2
DER
51%
25%
24%
|
75 | 77 | 2 | 0 |
| 03 Aug. 2024 |
DER
2 - 1
VAD
30%
26%
45%
|
75 | 82 | 7 | 0 |
| 31 Jul. 2024 |
BAR
4 - 3
DER
40%
24%
35%
|
75 | 70 | 5 | 0 |