Vitória Guimarães vs Estoril analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
64.2%
Win probability
1.99
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.6%
5-0
1.5%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2%
4-0
3.8%
5-1
1.3%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.3%
3-0
7.7%
4-1
3.3%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
11.6%
2-0
11.6%
3-1
6.5%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.7%
1-0
11.7%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.7%
20.7%
Draw
0-0
5.9%
1-1
9.9%
2-2
4.2%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
20.7%
15.1%
Win probability
0.85
Expected goals
0-1
4.9%
1-2
4.2%
2-3
1.2%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
10.5%
0-2
2.1%
1-3
1.2%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
3.5%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.9%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+15%
-3%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
3º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
12
3º
8º
5º
5
11º
17º
12º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
14º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
15 | 77 |
1º
|
62% | |
|
6º
|
10 | 69 |
2º
|
19% | |
|
2º
|
12 | 69 |
3º
|
25% | |
|
4º
|
11 | 68 |
4º
|
20.5% | |
|
|
3º
|
12 | 61 |
5º
|
30.5% | |
|
8º
|
7 | 52 |
6º
|
19% | |
|
5º
|
10 | 50 |
7º
|
21% | |
|
7º
|
9 | 43 |
8º
|
12% | |
|
12º
|
6 | 43 |
9º
|
9% | |
|
16º
|
3 | 43 |
10º
|
12.5% | |
|
10º
|
6 | 40 |
11º
|
11.5% | |
|
|
14º
|
5 | 39 |
12º
|
7.5% | |
|
13º
|
5 | 38 |
13º
|
11.5% | |
|
15º
|
4 | 37 |
14º
|
13% | |
|
11º
|
6 | 37 |
15º
|
11.5% | |
|
18º
|
0 | 34 |
16º
|
14% | |
|
9º
|
7 | 28 |
17º
|
25% | |
|
17º
|
2 | 27 |
18º
|
34% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champions League
|
2.5% | 0% |
|
Champions League qualifying phase
|
7.5% | 0% |
|
Europa League qualifying phase
|
9.5% | 0% |
|
Conference League knock out round
|
21% | 1% |
|
Mid-table
|
59.5% | 77.5% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
0% | 10.5% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 11% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Vitória Guimarães
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Aug. 2024 |
VIT
2 - 0
ZUR
45%
25%
30%
|
84 | 84 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 Aug. 2024 |
ARO
0 - 1
VIT
36%
26%
38%
|
84 | 79 | 5 | 0 |
| 08 Aug. 2024 |
ZUR
0 - 3
VIT
53%
23%
24%
|
83 | 84 | 1 | +1 |
| 01 Aug. 2024 |
VIT
4 - 0
FLO
72%
18%
11%
|
83 | 69 | 14 | 0 |
| 25 Jul. 2024 |
FLO
0 - 1
VIT
21%
24%
55%
|
83 | 69 | 14 | 0 |
Matches
Estoril
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Aug. 2024 |
EST
1 - 4
SAN
43%
27%
30%
|
74 | 75 | 1 | 0 |
| 03 Aug. 2024 |
VIZ
1 - 1
EST
35%
24%
41%
|
74 | 70 | 4 | 0 |
| 27 Jul. 2024 |
EST
1 - 1
UDL
68%
19%
13%
|
74 | 62 | 12 | 0 |
| 24 Jul. 2024 |
ESA
2 - 1
EST
33%
23%
43%
|
74 | 68 | 6 | 0 |
| 20 Jul. 2024 |
EST
0 - 0
MAF
62%
20%
18%
|
74 | 65 | 9 | 0 |