UEFA Intertoto Cup Quarter-finals
Global 3-2
Villarreal vs Spartak Moskva analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
59.8%
Win probability
1.89
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.2%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.6%
4-0
3.2%
5-1
1.1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.5%
3-0
6.7%
4-1
3%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
10.2%
2-0
10.6%
3-1
6.3%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
18.4%
1-0
11.2%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
2.9%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.5%
22%
Draw
0-0
5.9%
1-1
10.5%
2-2
4.6%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
22%
18.2%
Win probability
0.94
Expected goals
0-1
5.5%
1-2
4.9%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
12.1%
0-2
2.6%
1-3
1.5%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
4.5%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.2%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Villarreal
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Jul. 2004 |
VIL
2 - 0
OBK
59%
22%
19%
|
87 | 77 | 10 | 0 |
| 03 Jul. 2004 |
OBK
0 - 3
VIL
37%
27%
36%
|
87 | 78 | 9 | 0 |
| 23 May. 2004 |
VAD
3 - 0
VIL
39%
27%
34%
|
87 | 85 | 2 | 0 |
| 14 May. 2004 |
VIL
2 - 1
VCF
27%
28%
45%
|
87 | 93 | 6 | 0 |
| 09 May. 2004 |
VIL
1 - 0
BET
45%
26%
29%
|
86 | 87 | 1 | +1 |
Matches
Spartak Moskva
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Jul. 2004 |
KIV
0 - 1
SPA
39%
25%
36%
|
77 | 74 | 3 | 0 |
| 07 Jul. 2004 |
SPA
1 - 1
KUB
71%
18%
12%
|
77 | 64 | 13 | 0 |
| 03 Jul. 2004 |
SPA
4 - 1
KIV
58%
23%
19%
|
76 | 75 | 1 | +1 |
| 27 Jun. 2004 |
ATL
1 - 0
SPA
25%
24%
52%
|
76 | 67 | 9 | 0 |
| 20 Jun. 2004 |
SPA
2 - 0
ATL
65%
20%
16%
|
76 | 68 | 8 | 0 |