Q. Europa League Play Offs Final
Global 9-2
Villarreal vs NAC Breda analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
70%
Win probability
2.07
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.7%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.9%
5-0
2%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
<0%
+5
2.6%
4-0
4.9%
5-1
1.4%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
6.5%
3-0
9.5%
4-1
3.3%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
13.3%
2-0
13.8%
3-1
6.4%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
21.4%
1-0
13.3%
2-1
9.3%
3-2
2.2%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
25%
19.1%
Draw
0-0
6.4%
1-1
9%
2-2
3.1%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
<0%
0
19%
10.9%
Win probability
0.67
Expected goals
0-1
4.3%
1-2
3%
2-3
0.7%
3-4
0.1%
-1
8.1%
0-2
1.5%
1-3
0.7%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
2.3%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.5%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Villarreal
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Aug. 2009 |
NAC
1 - 3
VIL
23%
25%
52%
|
90 | 76 | 14 | 0 |
| 30 May. 2009 |
MLL
2 - 3
VIL
44%
25%
31%
|
90 | 88 | 2 | 0 |
| 23 May. 2009 |
VIL
3 - 1
VCF
45%
26%
29%
|
89 | 89 | 0 | +1 |
| 16 May. 2009 |
VIL
3 - 2
RMA
31%
26%
43%
|
89 | 93 | 4 | 0 |
| 10 May. 2009 |
FCB
3 - 3
VIL
74%
16%
10%
|
89 | 96 | 7 | 0 |
Matches
NAC Breda
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Aug. 2009 |
PSV
3 - 1
NAC
66%
20%
14%
|
76 | 87 | 11 | 0 |
| 20 Aug. 2009 |
NAC
1 - 3
VIL
23%
25%
52%
|
76 | 90 | 14 | 0 |
| 16 Aug. 2009 |
GRO
1 - 2
NAC
41%
26%
33%
|
76 | 75 | 1 | 0 |
| 09 Aug. 2009 |
NAC
0 - 0
HER
65%
21%
14%
|
76 | 63 | 13 | 0 |
| 06 Aug. 2009 |
NAC
3 - 1
POL
51%
24%
24%
|
75 | 75 | 0 | +1 |