UEFA Intertoto Cup Final
Global 2-1
Villarreal vs Heerenveen analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
59.8%
Win probability
1.87
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.2%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.6%
4-0
3.1%
5-1
1.1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.4%
3-0
6.7%
4-1
2.9%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
10.1%
2-0
10.7%
3-1
6.2%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
18.4%
1-0
11.5%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.6%
22.2%
Draw
0-0
6.1%
1-1
10.5%
2-2
4.5%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
22.2%
18%
Win probability
0.92
Expected goals
0-1
5.6%
1-2
4.9%
2-3
1.4%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
12.1%
0-2
2.6%
1-3
1.5%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
4.4%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.2%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Villarreal
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Aug. 2003 |
SCH
1 - 2
VIL
44%
26%
31%
|
84 | 79 | 5 | 0 |
| 06 Aug. 2003 |
VIL
2 - 0
ZBR
70%
19%
11%
|
84 | 74 | 10 | 0 |
| 30 Jul. 2003 |
ZBR
1 - 1
VIL
30%
27%
43%
|
84 | 73 | 11 | 0 |
| 26 Jul. 2003 |
BRE
1 - 1
VIL
44%
26%
30%
|
84 | 82 | 2 | 0 |
| 19 Jul. 2003 |
VIL
2 - 0
BRE
56%
24%
20%
|
83 | 82 | 1 | +1 |
Matches
Heerenveen
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Aug. 2003 |
SCH
1 - 0
FEY
30%
25%
46%
|
79 | 87 | 8 | 0 |
| 17 Aug. 2003 |
VOL
0 - 1
SCH
33%
25%
42%
|
78 | 66 | 12 | +1 |
| 12 Aug. 2003 |
SCH
1 - 2
VIL
44%
26%
31%
|
79 | 84 | 5 | -1 |
| 06 Aug. 2003 |
FCK
1 - 0
SCH
30%
28%
43%
|
80 | 69 | 11 | -1 |
| 30 Jul. 2003 |
SCH
2 - 0
FCK
68%
19%
13%
|
80 | 70 | 10 | 0 |