Victor San Marino vs Calcio Certaldo analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
64.5%
Win probability
2.42
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.4%
6-0
0.8%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
0.1%
+6
1.1%
5-0
1.9%
6-1
0.9%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
3%
4-0
3.9%
5-1
2.2%
6-2
0.5%
7-3
0.1%
+4
6.7%
3-0
6.4%
4-1
4.6%
5-2
1.3%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
12.6%
2-0
7.9%
3-1
7.6%
4-2
2.7%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
18.8%
1-0
6.5%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
4.5%
4-3
1.1%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.7%
18.2%
Draw
0-0
2.7%
1-1
7.8%
2-2
5.6%
3-3
1.8%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
18.2%
17.3%
Win probability
1.19
Expected goals
0-1
3.2%
1-2
4.6%
2-3
2.2%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
10.7%
0-2
1.9%
1-3
1.8%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
4.6%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
1.5%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+54%
+174%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
4º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
60
1º
14º
6º
27
16º
18º
17º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
17º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
72 | 72 |
1º
|
0% | |
|
2º
|
72 | 72 |
2º
|
0% | |
|
5º
|
59 | 62 |
3º
|
73.5% | |
|
6º
|
58 | 61 |
4º
|
17% | |
|
3º
|
61 | 61 |
5º
|
0% | |
|
|
4º
|
60 | 60 |
6º
|
50.5% | |
|
7º
|
47 | 47 |
7º
|
0% | |
|
9º
|
47 | 47 |
8º
|
0% | |
|
8º
|
47 | 47 |
9º
|
0% | |
|
12º
|
42 | 45 |
10º
|
50.5% | |
|
10º
|
44 | 45 |
11º
|
50.5% | |
|
11º
|
44 | 44 |
12º
|
50.5% | |
|
13º
|
41 | 41 |
13º
|
100% | |
|
14º
|
38 | 38 |
14º
|
94% | |
|
15º
|
32 | 33 |
15º
|
94% | |
|
16º
|
28 | 28 |
16º
|
100% | |
|
|
17º
|
27 | 27 |
17º
|
100% | |
|
18º
|
23 | 23 |
18º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
49.5% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
50.5% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 100% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Victor San Marino
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Mar. 2024 |
SAM
1 - 0
VSM
39%
24%
37%
|
35 | 35 | 0 | 0 |
| 23 Mar. 2024 |
VSM
3 - 4
PRO
66%
19%
16%
|
35 | 28 | 7 | 0 |
| 17 Mar. 2024 |
ACA
2 - 3
VSM
48%
26%
26%
|
34 | 41 | 7 | +1 |
| 10 Mar. 2024 |
VSM
2 - 1
MEZ
61%
20%
19%
|
33 | 28 | 5 | +1 |
| 03 Mar. 2024 |
RAV
1 - 1
VSM
67%
20%
13%
|
32 | 47 | 15 | +1 |
Matches
Calcio Certaldo
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Mar. 2024 |
CER
1 - 0
SAN
16%
18%
66%
|
23 | 41 | 18 | 0 |
| 23 Mar. 2024 |
LEN
1 - 1
CER
72%
18%
11%
|
23 | 45 | 22 | 0 |
| 17 Mar. 2024 |
CER
2 - 0
PIS
15%
19%
67%
|
18 | 38 | 20 | +5 |
| 10 Mar. 2024 |
FAN
2 - 2
CER
75%
16%
10%
|
17 | 35 | 18 | +1 |
| 03 Mar. 2024 |
CER
0 - 0
BSD
28%
22%
50%
|
17 | 23 | 6 | 0 |