VfR Aalen vs TSG Backnang analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
73.3%
Win probability
2.29
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.4%
6-0
1%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.3%
5-0
2.6%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.1%
+5
3.4%
4-0
5.8%
5-1
1.9%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
7.9%
3-0
10%
4-1
4.1%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
14.8%
2-0
13.1%
3-1
7.1%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
21.8%
1-0
11.4%
2-1
9.2%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.5%
16.9%
Draw
0-0
5%
1-1
8.1%
2-2
3.3%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
16.9%
9.8%
Win probability
0.7
Expected goals
0-1
3.5%
1-2
2.8%
2-3
0.8%
3-4
0.1%
-1
7.2%
0-2
1.2%
1-3
0.7%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
2.1%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.4%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-9%
-29%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
4º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
18
2º
7º
5º
9
7º
16º
16º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
12º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
27 | 80 |
1º
|
65% | |
|
2º
|
25 | 75 |
2º
|
50% | |
|
3º
|
18 | 65 |
3º
|
25% | |
|
10º
|
10 | 63 |
4º
|
18.5% | |
|
|
4º
|
18 | 62 |
5º
|
21% | |
|
5º
|
18 | 56 |
6º
|
20% | |
|
6º
|
16 | 51 |
7º
|
15.5% | |
|
8º
|
12 | 50 |
8º
|
12% | |
|
7º
|
14 | 43 |
9º
|
15.5% | |
|
9º
|
12 | 42 |
10º
|
9% | |
|
11º
|
10 | 39 |
11º
|
9% | |
|
16º
|
8 | 39 |
12º
|
6.5% | |
|
13º
|
8 | 37 |
13º
|
5% | |
|
15º
|
8 | 35 |
14º
|
9% | |
|
14º
|
8 | 34 |
15º
|
15.5% | |
|
|
12º
|
9 | 34 |
16º
|
12.5% | |
|
17º
|
6 | 31 |
17º
|
16.5% | |
|
18º
|
3 | 26 |
18º
|
42.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
2.5% | 0% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
9% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
88.5% | 65% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 35% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
VfR Aalen
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug. 2024 |
TSV
1 - 2
VFR
19%
20%
62%
|
43 | 24 | 19 | 0 |
| 21 Aug. 2024 |
VFR
3 - 0
NOR
64%
20%
15%
|
42 | 31 | 11 | +1 |
| 17 Aug. 2024 |
VFR
0 - 2
S04
4%
10%
86%
|
42 | 79 | 37 | 0 |
| 03 Aug. 2024 |
VFR
1 - 1
REU
70%
18%
12%
|
43 | 30 | 13 | -1 |
| 30 Jun. 2024 |
TSV
1 - 2
VFR
43%
24%
33%
|
43 | 42 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
TSG Backnang
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Aug. 2024 |
TSB
1 - 1
SVF
50%
21%
29%
|
29 | 27 | 2 | 0 |
| 16 Aug. 2024 |
PFO
3 - 0
TSB
78%
15%
8%
|
30 | 44 | 14 | -1 |
| 10 Aug. 2024 |
TSB
2 - 0
FCV
48%
21%
31%
|
28 | 29 | 1 | +2 |
| 03 Aug. 2024 |
VFR
0 - 0
TSB
52%
22%
26%
|
29 | 32 | 3 | -1 |
| 30 Jun. 2024 |
TSB
0 - 5
SVS
7%
14%
79%
|
30 | 60 | 30 | -1 |