Velbert vs SF Baumberg analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
59.2%
Win probability
2.24
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
<0%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.8%
5-0
1.4%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.2%
4-0
3.1%
5-1
1.8%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
0.1%
+4
5.4%
3-0
5.6%
4-1
4%
5-2
1.1%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
10.9%
2-0
7.5%
3-1
7.1%
4-2
2.5%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
17.7%
1-0
6.7%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
4.5%
4-3
1.1%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
22%
19.8%
Draw
0-0
3%
1-1
8.5%
2-2
6.1%
3-3
1.9%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
19.8%
20.9%
Win probability
1.28
Expected goals
0-1
3.8%
1-2
5.4%
2-3
2.6%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
12.5%
0-2
2.4%
1-3
2.3%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
5.7%
0-3
1%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+44%
-33%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
2º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
40
1º
8º
2º
17
11º
17º
12º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
15º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
42 | 78 |
1º
|
79% | |
|
|
2º
|
40 | 70 |
2º
|
38.5% | |
|
3º
|
38 | 66 |
3º
|
24.5% | |
|
4º
|
34 | 62 |
4º
|
25.5% | |
|
6º
|
32 | 60 |
5º
|
28.5% | |
|
5º
|
33 | 60 |
6º
|
22% | |
|
7º
|
27 | 49 |
7º
|
20% | |
|
8º
|
26 | 47 |
8º
|
18.5% | |
|
10º
|
23 | 44 |
9º
|
12% | |
|
9º
|
24 | 43 |
10º
|
8% | |
|
11º
|
21 | 43 |
11º
|
12.5% | |
|
|
15º
|
17 | 42 |
12º
|
10.5% | |
|
12º
|
19 | 38 |
13º
|
15% | |
|
14º
|
18 | 37 |
14º
|
16% | |
|
13º
|
19 | 35 |
15º
|
18% | |
|
16º
|
15 | 33 |
16º
|
24% | |
|
17º
|
12 | 24 |
17º
|
35% | |
|
18º
|
9 | 21 |
18º
|
61% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
13.5% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
86.5% | 95.5% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 4.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Velbert
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Nov. 2024 |
NET
0 - 2
VEL
11%
18%
71%
|
49 | 32 | 17 | 0 |
| 15 Nov. 2024 |
FCB
1 - 5
VEL
40%
24%
36%
|
47 | 44 | 3 | +2 |
| 08 Nov. 2024 |
VEL
4 - 0
MFC
69%
17%
14%
|
46 | 34 | 12 | +1 |
| 02 Nov. 2024 |
SVB
2 - 0
VEL
32%
23%
45%
|
47 | 37 | 10 | -1 |
| 25 Oct. 2024 |
VEL
4 - 0
TDV
81%
12%
7%
|
48 | 29 | 19 | -1 |
Matches
SF Baumberg
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Nov. 2024 |
SFB
2 - 0
SON
50%
23%
27%
|
43 | 44 | 1 | 0 |
| 23 Nov. 2024 |
NET
1 - 1
SFB
16%
19%
65%
|
43 | 31 | 12 | 0 |
| 14 Nov. 2024 |
FOR
1 - 1
SFB
52%
22%
26%
|
42 | 48 | 6 | +1 |
| 09 Nov. 2024 |
SFB
2 - 2
SFN
77%
14%
9%
|
42 | 29 | 13 | 0 |
| 03 Nov. 2024 |
FCB
5 - 0
SFB
39%
23%
39%
|
43 | 41 | 2 | -1 |