Copa do Brasil Last 16
Global 3-0
Vasco da Gama vs Náutico analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
73.7%
Win probability
2.3
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.4%
6-0
1%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.3%
5-0
2.7%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.1%
+5
3.5%
4-0
5.9%
5-1
1.8%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
8%
3-0
10.2%
4-1
4%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
14.9%
2-0
13.3%
3-1
7%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.1%
+2
21.9%
1-0
11.6%
2-1
9.2%
3-2
2.4%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.6%
16.8%
Draw
0-0
5.1%
1-1
8%
2-2
3.2%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
16.8%
9.5%
Win probability
0.69
Expected goals
0-1
3.5%
1-2
2.7%
2-3
0.7%
3-4
0.1%
-1
7%
0-2
1.2%
1-3
0.6%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
2%
0-3
0.3%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.4%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Vasco da Gama
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Apr. 2011 |
VAS
1 - 0
OLA
80%
14%
6%
|
80 | 55 | 25 | 0 |
| 17 Apr. 2011 |
OLA
2 - 2
VAS
12%
21%
67%
|
80 | 55 | 25 | 0 |
| 14 Apr. 2011 |
NAU
0 - 3
VAS
24%
24%
53%
|
80 | 61 | 19 | 0 |
| 09 Apr. 2011 |
VAS
2 - 1
CAB
84%
12%
4%
|
80 | 45 | 35 | 0 |
| 07 Apr. 2011 |
VAS
2 - 1
ABC
74%
17%
9%
|
80 | 63 | 17 | 0 |
Matches
Náutico
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Apr. 2011 |
SPO
3 - 1
NAU
53%
24%
24%
|
61 | 68 | 7 | 0 |
| 17 Apr. 2011 |
NAU
1 - 0
SPO
39%
25%
37%
|
61 | 69 | 8 | 0 |
| 14 Apr. 2011 |
NAU
0 - 3
VAS
24%
24%
53%
|
61 | 80 | 19 | 0 |
| 10 Apr. 2011 |
AME
4 - 2
NAU
15%
20%
66%
|
62 | 34 | 28 | -1 |
| 02 Apr. 2011 |
NAU
4 - 3
CEN
75%
16%
9%
|
62 | 44 | 18 | 0 |