Copa do Brasil Last 16
Global 4-1
Vasco da Gama vs Nacional AM analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
87.5%
Win probability
2.64
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.3%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.3%
7-0
1%
8-1
0.1%
+7
1.1%
6-0
2.6%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
2.8%
5-0
5.8%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
<0%
+5
6.5%
4-0
11%
5-1
1.6%
6-2
0.1%
+4
12.7%
3-0
16.6%
4-1
3%
5-2
0.2%
+3
19.9%
2-0
18.9%
3-1
4.6%
4-2
0.4%
5-3
<0%
+2
23.9%
1-0
14.3%
2-1
5.2%
3-2
0.6%
4-3
<0%
+1
20.1%
10.1%
Draw
0-0
5.4%
1-1
3.9%
2-2
0.7%
3-3
0.1%
0
10.1%
2.4%
Win probability
0.27
Expected goals
0-1
1.5%
1-2
0.5%
2-3
0.1%
-1
2.1%
0-2
0.2%
1-3
0%
-2
0.3%
0-3
0%
-3
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Vasco da Gama
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Aug. 2013 |
VAS
1 - 1
COR
39%
28%
33%
|
80 | 87 | 7 | 0 |
| 21 Aug. 2013 |
NAC
0 - 2
VAS
11%
19%
70%
|
80 | 46 | 34 | 0 |
| 18 Aug. 2013 |
VAS
2 - 3
GRE
42%
26%
32%
|
80 | 83 | 3 | 0 |
| 15 Aug. 2013 |
SAN
1 - 1
VAS
56%
23%
21%
|
80 | 84 | 4 | 0 |
| 11 Aug. 2013 |
COT
0 - 1
VAS
57%
22%
21%
|
80 | 82 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Nacional AM
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Aug. 2013 |
NAC
6 - 1
NAU
72%
17%
11%
|
45 | 30 | 15 | 0 |
| 21 Aug. 2013 |
NAC
0 - 2
VAS
11%
19%
70%
|
46 | 80 | 34 | -1 |
| 17 Aug. 2013 |
PLA
1 - 2
NAC
34%
26%
40%
|
45 | 40 | 5 | +1 |
| 11 Aug. 2013 |
NAC
5 - 2
GEN
72%
18%
11%
|
45 | 31 | 14 | 0 |
| 04 Aug. 2013 |
PAR
2 - 1
NAC
42%
25%
33%
|
46 | 42 | 4 | -1 |