Conmebol Sudamericana Last 16
Global 9-6
Vasco da Gama vs Aurora analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
64%
Win probability
1.99
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.6%
5-0
1.5%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2%
4-0
3.8%
5-1
1.3%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.3%
3-0
7.7%
4-1
3.2%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
0.1%
+3
11.5%
2-0
11.6%
3-1
6.5%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.7%
1-0
11.7%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.7%
20.8%
Draw
0-0
5.9%
1-1
9.9%
2-2
4.2%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
20.8%
15.2%
Win probability
0.85
Expected goals
0-1
5%
1-2
4.2%
2-3
1.2%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
10.5%
0-2
2.1%
1-3
1.2%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
3.6%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.9%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Vasco da Gama
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Oct. 2011 |
BAH
0 - 2
VAS
28%
26%
47%
|
82 | 72 | 10 | 0 |
| 16 Oct. 2011 |
VAS
2 - 0
ATM
52%
25%
24%
|
82 | 77 | 5 | 0 |
| 14 Oct. 2011 |
ATP
2 - 2
VAS
34%
26%
40%
|
82 | 76 | 6 | 0 |
| 09 Oct. 2011 |
SCI
3 - 0
VAS
50%
24%
26%
|
82 | 84 | 2 | 0 |
| 06 Oct. 2011 |
AUR
3 - 1
VAS
29%
25%
46%
|
83 | 72 | 11 | -1 |
Matches
Aurora
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Oct. 2011 |
NAC
1 - 2
AUR
38%
28%
34%
|
72 | 64 | 8 | 0 |
| 20 Oct. 2011 |
AUR
0 - 3
OPE
49%
25%
26%
|
73 | 73 | 0 | -1 |
| 06 Oct. 2011 |
AUR
3 - 1
VAS
29%
25%
46%
|
72 | 83 | 11 | +1 |
| 29 Sep. 2011 |
AUR
2 - 0
SAN
52%
24%
24%
|
71 | 67 | 4 | +1 |
| 25 Sep. 2011 |
STR
2 - 1
AUR
52%
24%
24%
|
72 | 69 | 3 | -1 |