Conmebol Sudamericana 1/16
Global 1-0
Vasco da Gama vs Caracas analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
51.6%
Win probability
1.57
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.6%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.8%
4-0
2%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.7%
3-0
5.1%
4-1
1.9%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
7.4%
2-0
9.8%
3-1
4.9%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
15.8%
1-0
12.5%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
2.4%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.6%
25.3%
Draw
0-0
8%
1-1
12%
2-2
4.5%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
25.3%
23.1%
Win probability
0.96
Expected goals
0-1
7.6%
1-2
5.8%
2-3
1.4%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
15%
0-2
3.7%
1-3
1.8%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
5.9%
0-3
1.2%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.7%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Vasco da Gama
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Oct. 2020 |
VAS
1 - 2
COR
31%
29%
40%
|
75 | 82 | 7 | 0 |
| 18 Oct. 2020 |
SCI
2 - 0
VAS
64%
21%
15%
|
76 | 84 | 8 | -1 |
| 10 Oct. 2020 |
VAS
1 - 2
FLA
12%
20%
68%
|
76 | 89 | 13 | 0 |
| 08 Oct. 2020 |
BAH
3 - 0
VAS
46%
27%
28%
|
77 | 77 | 0 | -1 |
| 05 Oct. 2020 |
ATM
4 - 1
VAS
67%
20%
13%
|
77 | 83 | 6 | 0 |
Matches
Caracas
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Oct. 2020 |
CFC
1 - 0
ZAM
44%
27%
29%
|
72 | 73 | 1 | 0 |
| 23 Oct. 2020 |
BOC
3 - 0
CFC
69%
20%
11%
|
72 | 87 | 15 | 0 |
| 01 Oct. 2020 |
CFC
0 - 2
IND
38%
25%
37%
|
74 | 77 | 3 | -2 |
| 24 Sep. 2020 |
CFC
2 - 1
LIB
24%
24%
52%
|
73 | 83 | 10 | +1 |
| 17 Sep. 2020 |
IND
2 - 3
CFC
68%
19%
13%
|
72 | 78 | 6 | +1 |