Carioca 1 Final
Global 3-1
Vasco da Gama vs Botafogo analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
53.2%
Win probability
1.69
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.8%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
1%
4-0
2.3%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3.2%
3-0
5.4%
4-1
2.3%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
8.1%
2-0
9.6%
3-1
5.4%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
+2
16.3%
1-0
11.4%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.2%
24.2%
Draw
0-0
6.7%
1-1
11.5%
2-2
4.9%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.2%
22.7%
Win probability
1.01
Expected goals
0-1
6.8%
1-2
5.8%
2-3
1.7%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
14.5%
0-2
3.4%
1-3
2%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0%
-2
5.9%
0-3
1.2%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.7%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+11%
+9%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Vasco da Gama
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Apr. 2015 |
FLA
0 - 1
VAS
59%
23%
18%
|
78 | 82 | 4 | 0 |
| 16 Apr. 2015 |
VAS
3 - 2
RIO
83%
13%
4%
|
78 | 45 | 33 | 0 |
| 12 Apr. 2015 |
VAS
0 - 0
FLA
43%
26%
31%
|
78 | 82 | 4 | 0 |
| 09 Apr. 2015 |
VAS
4 - 1
VOL
79%
15%
6%
|
78 | 55 | 23 | 0 |
| 05 Apr. 2015 |
FRI
5 - 4
VAS
13%
22%
66%
|
78 | 48 | 30 | 0 |
Matches
Botafogo
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Apr. 2015 |
BOT
2 - 1
FLU
39%
27%
35%
|
76 | 83 | 7 | 0 |
| 16 Apr. 2015 |
BOT
4 - 2
BOT
77%
17%
6%
|
76 | 54 | 22 | 0 |
| 11 Apr. 2015 |
FLU
2 - 1
BOT
65%
20%
15%
|
76 | 82 | 6 | 0 |
| 09 Apr. 2015 |
BOT
1 - 0
MAC
72%
19%
10%
|
76 | 57 | 19 | 0 |
| 05 Apr. 2015 |
BOT
4 - 1
MAD
72%
19%
9%
|
76 | 58 | 18 | 0 |