Conmebol Sudamericana 1/16
Global 6-2
Vasco da Gama vs Athletico Paranaense analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
53.7%
Win probability
1.85
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.4%
5-0
0.9%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.3%
4-0
2.4%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
3.7%
3-0
5.2%
4-1
2.8%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
8.7%
2-0
8.5%
3-1
6%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
16.4%
1-0
9.2%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
3.5%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.2%
22.7%
Draw
0-0
5%
1-1
10.6%
2-2
5.6%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
22.7%
23.6%
Win probability
1.15
Expected goals
0-1
5.7%
1-2
6.1%
2-3
2.2%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
14.4%
0-2
3.3%
1-3
2.3%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
-2
6.3%
0-3
1.3%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
2.1%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Vasco da Gama
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Sep. 2007 |
VAS
0 - 2
SAO
35%
27%
39%
|
83 | 89 | 6 | 0 |
| 06 Sep. 2007 |
GRE
3 - 1
VAS
38%
26%
36%
|
83 | 81 | 2 | 0 |
| 02 Sep. 2007 |
FLU
1 - 1
VAS
38%
25%
37%
|
83 | 81 | 2 | 0 |
| 31 Aug. 2007 |
VAS
4 - 1
NAU
70%
19%
12%
|
83 | 71 | 12 | 0 |
| 26 Aug. 2007 |
SPO
0 - 0
VAS
30%
24%
46%
|
83 | 74 | 9 | 0 |
Matches
Athletico Paranaense
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Sep. 2007 |
FLU
2 - 0
ATP
45%
24%
31%
|
80 | 81 | 1 | 0 |
| 06 Sep. 2007 |
GOI
2 - 3
ATP
49%
23%
28%
|
80 | 81 | 1 | 0 |
| 02 Sep. 2007 |
ATP
1 - 0
ATM
54%
23%
23%
|
79 | 79 | 0 | +1 |
| 31 Aug. 2007 |
SAN
3 - 1
ATP
56%
23%
21%
|
80 | 87 | 7 | -1 |
| 25 Aug. 2007 |
SCI
1 - 0
ATP
44%
26%
30%
|
80 | 85 | 5 | 0 |